SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Fed officials have great difficulty in thinking outside the box, ceaselessly repeating themselves. If they stopped to think for a moment they would see what´s very different now from what presented itself ten years ago. And the significant difference is not in the rate of inflation or the rate of unemployment, but in the level trend and growth rate of nominal spending
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We have painted a fairly sombre picture for emerging markets assets next year. Our base case is that EM debt will generate returns of 0-2%, while EM equities should yield 5-7% returns for USD based investors. The main thesis that underlies this view is that the growth alpha between EM and DM will fall further, with sluggishness in exports a critical concern.
The commodification of water supplies around the world reflects a growing trend of the privatization of natural resources.
BEIJING | By Li Xuena via Caixin | Zhong Shidan started climbing the Wal-Mart career ladder 18 years ago after she joined the U.S. retail giant’s Shenzhen outlet as a shop assistant. Today, Zhong holds a high-level operations department position and oversees the company’s more than 80,000 employees in China. She goes by the English name Grace and works hard to reflect well on Wal-Mart as an executive who is persistent, smart and focused.
MADRID | The Corner | Benchmark Brent crude dived on Tuesday to its lowest in five years, plummeting below $66 a barrel after plunging more than 4 percent the day before on worries of a swelling supply glut, according to Reuters. Oil prices are likely to remain around $65/barrel for the next six or seven months, the chief of Kuwait’s national oil company said on Monday, in the latest sign that Gulf producers are ready to ride out plunging prices. According to experts at Link, this could lead to tensions on the money markets.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is being negotiated between the European Commission and the United States in Brussels. Once again, Germany, as Europe’s economic and political powerhouse, could have the last word on its contents and approval.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | As soon as you mention “market monetarist”, NGDP comes to mind. While for most the all-encompassing variable is inflation, to MMs the “target” variable is NGDP being kept at a steadily rising trend level.
ZURICH | By UBS analysts | We have a neutral stance on global banks as we look to 2015. Given a modest recovery in global growth in 2015E, credit demand is expected to remain sluggish while the margin outlook is likely to be mixed, reflecting diverging policy rate trends. We expect to see good cost control as banks strive for greater efficiency while overall asset quality should remain stable albeit picking up in emerging markets. While earnings momentum has been negative this year, we think current valuations are fair, with the sector trading on 10.1x PE and 1.0x PBV versus a sector ROE of 12.4%, on our 2015 estimates.
By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The prospects for growth in the West may be dim, but that doesn’t mean Asia’s developing countries must settle for privation.
MADRID | The Corner | The ruble plummeted on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis, plunging more than 6% against the dollar before recovering to losses of around 4% Lowering oil prices are killing the currency, and yet Moscow does not intend to cut production in 2015, leaving output at the current 525-526 million metric tons. Russian analysts commenting for The Corner explained there is enough currency liquidity in the market to handle the shock. At least for now.