G20 summit: Carrot and stick with China and US
Anthony Chan (UBP) | In the run-up with regards to the on-going Sino-US trade talks, we have seen the carrot-and-stick approach from both sides as they leverage their respective negotiating power.
World economy
BIS warns of challenges to banking sectors and financial stability from irruption of Big Tech
In its last report about Big tech in finance, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warns about the risk of a “digital monopoly” of tech companies which own their clients´ information for free.
A G20 meeting marred by trade restrictions
The G20 finance and economy ministers will meet in Fukuoka (Japan) this weekend against the backdrop of trade restrictions. The World Trade Organization estimates that between October and May, 20 new restrictions on world trade have been introduced, worth 335.9 mm. $. These measures are linked to others that previously affected a volume of trade worth 480.9 mm. $, and most worrying is that more restrictions are expected. This compensates, Intermoney analysts argue, the liberalizing measures by value of 397.2 mm. € that were taken in the last months.
Is Warren Buffett the Last True Believer in Constant Progress?
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | The media will never tire of Warren Buffett’s oracular pronouncements, nor will it dare to put them in perspective or critique them.
US labour market is weakening, but not by much
Despite weak employment creation data, analysts at DWS point out that the US labour market probably remains too vigorous in general to justify the Fed cutting interest rates.
Jerome Powell wrestles with an intricate conundrum
J. P. Marín-Arrese | US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the dilemma of choosing the right path, confronted with conflicting data and forecasts. While the US economy grew at a booming 4% rate in the first quarter, inflation trails far behind the Fed’s objective and salaries fail to pick up despite historically low levels of unemployment. Moreover, the trade tug-of-war with China is denting confidence in consumers and investors alike. Should the conflict turn worse, the economy might suffer a harsh blow.
Does immigration contribute to economic growth? Without doubt
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | The three countries with greatest GDP growth, both in current and constant terms (the US, Spain and France), have been those that have experienced a greater increase in population, coming from first- or second-generation immigrants.
The Fed Sneezes, The World Central Banks Catch A Cure
BoAML | A combination of weaker growth and low inflation is driving an ongoing monetary easing. So far this year, nine out of the 35 central banks we actively cover have cut rates and only three have raised rates. Over the rest of the year, we expect cuts by 14 central banks,
Oil Prices: Dipping Below 60 $ As Fears Become Fact
The Corner | For the second time this month, oil prices dropped below 60 $ per barrel. Growth concerns and a bearish market mood drove the latest sell-off, but fundamentals are now adding to the price pressure. US oil inventories swelled unexpectedly and led to a drop in oil prices.
The Misadventures of “Tariff Man”
John Feffer via Fair Observer | For Donald Trump, tariffs are a substitute for diplomacy, just as harassment in his personal life is a substitute for normal human interaction.