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World economy 19th March 2022

Is Russia The New Iran As A Result Of Sanctions?

George Brown (Schroders) | Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world following its illegal invasion of Ukraine, which has brought misery to millions. More than 2,000 additional Western sanctions have been brought in against a broad range of individuals, corporations and institutions. Measures have also been put in place to exclude it from international payments systems, using major reserve currencies or accessing key technologies such as semiconductors….

World economy 18th March 2022

What Does China’s 2021 Energy Crunch Mean For Its 2022 Macroeconomic Outlook?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Even with more than two years after the first outbreak of COVID-19, China, as well as the rest of the world, still faces the impact of the pandemic. While the economy has surged from the bottom since the middle of 2021 after China’s successful containment of the domestic spread of the virus, the recovery’s momentum has slowed down quite rapidly, especially since the second quarter…

World economy 14th March 2022

Can China Bail Out Putin?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences. But this will depend on whether Russia manages to bypass the sanctions or, at the very least, mitigate them. One important consideration to answer this question is China’s potential role in offering a helping hand to the Russian economy. China’s economic size and financial clout,…

World economy 10th March 2022

Acerinox: the lion’s share of profits come from its US business

Morgan Stanley | According to Bloomberg, Acerinox stopped foundry operations at its Cadiz stainless steel plant last night and has launched a licensing plan due to high energy prices. The article flags that the company could consider leaving other parts of the plants idling, such as the hot and cold rolled mills. We believe this move highlights the increasing energy challenges in Europe. That said, we think that Acerinox may…

World economy 6th March 2022

Which Sector Will Suffer More In Asia From Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Asia is far from Ukraine, but the conflict with Russia has rippling effects far beyond borders. From the SWIFT ban to the chip blockade, the West and Asian economies have further sanctioned Russia. Although the financial linkages between Russia and Asia are limited, spillovers on the economy cannot be discounted. In this note, we analyze the impact of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine on key non-financial…

World economy 3rd March 2022

The Five Most Promising Markets For 2022: Uruguay, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar And Taiwan

Crédito y Caución | Five markets are particularly poised to offer new opportunities for exporters and investors as the global economy continues its bumpy post-pandemic recovery: Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar, Taiwan and Uruguay. All five markets meet three criteria: good GDP recovery prospects, effective containment of the pandemic, and increased institutional stability of their economic policies and institutions. We expect Côte d’Ivoire to enjoy one of the highest GDP growth…

World economy 1st March 2022

The Swift “Weapon Of Economic Mass Destruction”: Could Be Disconnecting Russia Devastating Or Not?

Last week there was already talk about the possibility of excluding some Russian banks from the SWIFT system, so the decision announced by Ursula Von der Leyen in the early hours of Sunday morning was not entirely unexpected. It is considered a “weapon of (economic) mass destruction”. The decision to exclude banks from the SWIFT system has never before been applied to a banking system as interconnected as the Russian…

World economy 25th February 2022

Rusia Invades Ukraine Damging The Global Economy

Tatiana Orlova (Oxford Economics) | In the early hoursoftoday, Russian military forces attacked military targets across Ukraine. Border guards reported that Ukraine’s territory was being shelled from five regions, including Crimea and Belarus. Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Although a protracted…

World economy 23rd February 2022

How Much Trade Support Can Russia Find In China?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Given the delicate situation in Ukraine and the US imposition of sanctions on Russia, followed by the European Union (EU), it seems important to assess how much Russia can rely on China as a trading partner. Although trade between the EU and Russia has lost some steam since Putin’s “Pivoting to the East” announced during his 2021 campaign and the sanctions imposed in 2014 due…

World economy 19th February 2022

The Great Resignation: Is This A Transitional Phenomenon Or A Sign Of Structural Change?

Clàudia Canals & José Ramón Díaz (CaixaBank Research) | For months now, analysts of the US economy have been debating the labour market’s difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic levels, despite GDP having done so back in Q2 2021. It is surprising that one of the world’s most flexible labour markets is taking so long to regain normality, especially when compared to what is going on in countries such as Spain,…

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