The eternal debate as to whether Spain has a quality democracy, with a level of legal security on a par with Europe, has recently become topical again following the courts’ decisions in the cases of Urdangarin and the “black” credit cards. Weeks before legal security also appeared because of the courts’ ruling related to the floor clauses.
There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.
The PSOE “barons” rebellion against party leader Pedro Sanchez represents an internal power struggle. A national issue. Sanchez has been replaced by an interim executive committe headed by Javier Fernandez. Sanchez had a strategy worked out.
Alarm bells are sounding across Europe over the possibility of Spain being a year without a government. Even the international press is calling for an end to the political deadlock in its editorials. But the concern has yet to reach the markets: the day before the start of a new investiture process in Spain, which could end in failure, the country’s risk premium remained below 100 basis points and the Ibex 35 blue-chip index lost hardly any ground, in line with the performance of its European peers.
Fernando Rodriguez | Spain’s small and midcap companies are weathering the Brexit storm better than the bigger stocks. Fund managers from Santander, Bankia and Gescooperativo explain their strategies: “In general, we believe the exposure of these companies to Brexit is limited due to their limited exposure to the UK in terms of sales.”
Ana Fuentes | “Spaniards tend to be schizophrenic because they all want the best services, like they have in the Nordic countries, free education…and you can only have this by paying much higher taxes than we do in Spain where there is a huge amount of fraud and tax evasion,” says William Chislett, associate researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and former correspondent for The Times and the Financial Times.
Spain’s political debate is going on between two irreconcilable adversaries, each one with its own issues. Meanwhile, in the back room where the accounts are done, there is hard work going on to refinance the public and private debt which matures every day. Without some tailwinds, Spain (BBB) could once again find itself facing serious problems.
Almost at the same time as Socialist candidate Pedro Sanchez gave his inaugural speech in Parliament yesterday, Spain’s stock market saw another consecutive increase. It rose over 1.8%, almost its best performance since October. The second day of debate has been closed with a similar level increase: 1.78% up to 8.764,5 points.
The Spanish bourse was the worst performer in Europe in 2015. But it is not yet ready for a rally. According to influential Anglo Saxon newspapers there are some extremely negative and toxic elements in Spain with regard to regulated sectors following the December 20 elections. These could affect the risk premium and the risk-free rate etc, with the consequence negative impact on companies’ WACC and valuations.
The political risk in Spain is a totum revolutum, where even the analysts cannot agree on what factor carries the most weight: either the Catalan secession process, the appearance on the scene of a political force like Podemos or the possibility that the delicate balance acheived through the timid reforms implemented by Rajoy’s government could be destroyed.