China

The economic cold war between the US and China is here to stay

China’s “Lianghui” points to leadership determination to rebuff Trump’s actions

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s most important annual gathering, the so-called Lianghui(两会) will ended on March 11 after over a week of meetings by the legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC), but also the most important consultative body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). One of the key objectives of these “Two Sessions”, as they are generally referred to in English, was to offer the key economic…


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Chinese house prices fall in January for second consecutive month, down 5% year-on-year compared to 5.3% previously

Norbolsa | New housing prices in China stagnated in January for the second consecutive month, with an annual fall of 5% compared to 5.3% previously. The number of unsold new homes increased by 16.2%, reaching 390.88 million m², and new projects fell by 23% in 2023. In the secondary market, prices fell 30% from their peak, with annual declines of 5.6% (first-tier cities), 6.0% (second-tier) and 8.2% (third-tier), representing 59%…


china aranceles

Chinese aluminium manufacturers to hardly be affected by US tariffs

Intermoney | The US is wielding tariffs as a weapon to achieve certain concessions and show its ability to exert pressure in certain areas, but we should not overestimate them, as in some cases the products lack high added value. This is the case with aluminium and China. Chinese aluminium manufacturers will hardly be affected by the US plan to impose tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium imports. The…


The winners and losers of new Nafta

Trump wages war with tariff weaponry

Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | The sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China do not stem out of protectionism. In Trump’s mind they simply amount to massive destruction weapons aimed at waging wars without casualties. He aims to submit and bully every nation on earth be it a friend or a foe. For all we know that difference doesn’t really matter. The longstanding close alliance between the US and its…


Trump Eurozona

Trump says he could impose 10% tariffs on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico and warns Europe of large trade deficit

Bankinter: Trump says he could impose a 10% tariff on China and warns Europe. The United States is considering a 10% tariff on China. He justifies it as retaliation for China’s exports of fentanyl. It marks 1 February as a key date. In this regard, on Monday Trump affirmed his intention to apply 25% tariffs to Canada and Mexico. Bankinter analysis team view: Trump sends a reminder that he will…


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PBoC injects ¥958.4 billion in cash, second largest cash injection in history

Link Secutities | The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) today injected a net cash amount of ¥958.4 billion via 7-day reverse repurchase agreements in its daily open market operations. This is the second-largest-ever cash injection, according to Bloomberg. The operation is aimed at offsetting the impact of maturing medium-term lending facilities (MLF), as well as coping with higher demand for cash ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, and peak…


china central bank

China to adopt ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025 to support economic growth

Bankinter: China is to adopt a “moderately loose/lax ’ monetary policy in 2025 to support economic growth. This is the first strategic shift in monetary policy since 2010 towards a ‘prudent’ monetary policy. In addition, the Politburo announces the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, in order to ‘vigorously’ boost consumption and expand domestic demand in ‘all directions’. Opinion of Bankinter’s analysis team: The Chinese government has five fixed monetary…


China EEUU choque

US launches third package of microchip restrictions, China bans export of certain rare earths and key minerals

Banca March: In the intensifying trade disputes between China and the US, the US has launched the third package of microchip restrictions and China has responded by banning the export of certain rare earths and key minerals. The Asian giant has focused its retaliation on blocking shipments of gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite to the United States. Germanium is used in semiconductors, infrared technology, fibre optic cables and solar cells….


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China: commercial banks keep rates on hold, in line with PBOC, to avoid excessive yuan depreciation

Bankinter: The one-year rate, which is the benchmark for corporate loans, remained at 3.10%. The five-year rate, which is the benchmark for mortgage loans, remained at 3.60%. In October, commercial banks cut these rates by -25bp following the PBOC cut that was part of a stimulus plan to revitalise the economy approved at the end of September. Market sentiment: This pause in the process of rate cuts by commercial banks…


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China announces $840 billion allocation to local governments to tackle hidden debt problems

Link Securities | Last Friday, as reported by CNBC, Chinese authorities announced that the central government will allocate an additional CN¥6 trillion ($840 billion) to local governments to address hidden debt problems. The programme will take effect this year and run until the end of 2026, China’s finance minister Lan Fo’an told reporters. The aid will be spread over about CN¥2 trillion a year. Lan added that starting this year,…