WisdomTree | The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return (BCOM TR) Index posted its third consecutive month of gains in June 2021, capping the quarter with a 13.3% q-o-q gain, the strongest since Q4 2010. Demand for commodities is rising as pandemic era restrictions are being lifted, while bottlenecks are providing supply challenges. Not all commodity sectors performed equally in the reporting month (which ended 16th July), with precious metals sliding 3.6%,…
In August 2020, commodities had their best monthly performance since April 2016 and second-best monthly performance in the past decade (based on the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index). Each major segment of commodities contributed positively to the strong performance, led by Energy (+11.2%). Natural gas was the best performer in that segment, with a 47.6% gain.
Following the reopening of the US Government after its shutdown, the market has been operating without data from both the US Department of Agriculture and speculative positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Next report by Wisdom Tree covers a period of three months about commodity markets.
By David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Over the last few months, we have written, spoken, and tweeted incessantly about the coming headwinds to both the global economy and the capital markets. In July we noted that despite the current macroeconomic momentum, there are many factors that are likely to hamper growth by the time we get to late 2019 or 2020. These include tighter monetary policy that will actually begin to pinch growth, fading tax-cut and fiscal stimulus (especially if the Democrats take the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections), continued trade and export headwinds, a Brexit supply-shock to the UK and EU, and so on.
The reflation trade that boosted a rally in global stockmarkets after Donald Trump’s victory has been put to the test in recent weeks with the inflation data failing to deliver the sought-after hard facts. However, commodities as an asset class have for some time been somewhat isolated from the reflation debate
Julius Baer Research | The past years’ least loved commodity has made a silent comeback. Coal prices are up more than 30% from the earlier year lows. Northwest European coal import prices, the leading benchmark, trade above USD 55 per tonne. The comeback is in part related to the oil and natural gas price rally.
The slowdown in oil prices affects all producer countries, both emerging and developed, whether Brazil, Mexico, Norway or the United States. The difference with the 90s is that EM are now much more solid.
MADRID | July 23, 2015 | By Francisco López | Until just over one year ago, funds with high exposure to emerging economies were the start product. Now the trend has reversed. Investors are rolling back their positions due to the vulnerabilities that present many countries due after the fall in commodities prices, China’s economy slowdown and expectations of US Fed rates hike.
The Corner | May 19, 2015 | Copper prices were back above $6,300/t in April for the first time in 2015. Since this commodity is used in so many industries, it is crucial to know if this move will be sustained and send a positive signal to global manufacturers or it is only driven by a speculative market.
By Sreekala Kochugovindan, Anando Maitra (Barclays) | History highlights the importance of the business cycle in determining the effect of rising rates on asset returns, a topic we discussed in depth in Scenarios for a shifting bond landscape. We examined US data since 1925 and selected episodes where US Treasuries sold off by more than 5% in one year. The results were pretty mixed, with equity returns ranging between plus and minus 50% and providing no consistent pattern.