Compared to the spring we have higher economic activity today even with much higher coronavirus cases. However, we have currently reached a point where controlling the further acceleration of the virus means accepting new economic costs. Lockdowns are back and we don’t even have the nice weather to help us deal with being stuck at home. The current wave could peak in the next few weeks, but the economic costs will persist and that means it is important that there are new policy measures in the pipeline. The ECB is going further in December and the US should deliver on more fiscal support in 2021. However, the game changer will be a vaccine which will help reduce the health costs and boost economic growth. A bullish outlook for 2021 really relies on that happening.
The symbolism of President Trump testing positive for coronavirus will not be lost on market participants and economists. Many things – from US-China relations, post-election tax policy, the US’s relationship with global institutions, trade, climate change progress, social cohesion in the US –depend on how a 74-year old man reacts to getting a virus that has claimed over a million lives globally this year
With less than 50 days before the US elections, market participants will be preparing their portfolios for turbulent times ahead. New Covid-19 cases continue to rise, and particularly in some US states and European countries, worryingly so. In our view, the proximity of the elections in the US leaves the debate about further fiscal stimulus in a no-man’s land, where it is difficult to see a quick and impactful resolution. In the picture, new cases of Covid-19 per million inhabitants per day
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | “After months of the greenback rallying on bad news as investors sought safe havens, it seems like the uniquely bad domestic COVID-19 situation has finally caught up with the US dollar. It is the end of the quarter, but today’s price action nonetheless has a feel of the dollar’s chickens coming home to roost.