MADRID | The Corner | The ECB reported on Thursday the data of interest rates applied in banking corporate loans in June, which have been reduced by 18 bp in loans worth up to €1M for the EZ (up to 3.57%). Moreover, these discounts have been widespread and even higher in peripheral economies’ banks: -21 bp up to 4.3% (weighting by GDP of rates applied in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal).
MADRID | The Corner | A further sign of a recovery in credit: standards on loans within the eurozone have been eased for the first time in the 2Q in seven years, just before the financial crisis bursted, the ECB said in its regular Banking Lending Survey released on Wednesday. Net demand continues to recover for both household and enterprise borrowing. However, as we reported, the open bar announced by Mr Draghi won’t have an impact on loans until 2015 and, meanwhile, credit fall continues to accelerate in some peripheral countries, especially in Spain and Italy.
MADRID | The Corner | The EU is considering harder sanctions on Russia after the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. What are the effects of the current and potential further sanctions on the Russian economy and, in general, on Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign external debt? Co-CIO Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management’s Asoka Wöhrmann weighs in. (Illustration: Iain Green at The Scotsman)
LONDON | The Corner | The winners in the “race for recovery” are those who get credit flowing again. In their Wednesday comment, UBS Global Macro Team points out that “the key to recovery coming out of a credit crunch is to get credit flowing again: the US and, to a lesser degree, the UK managed this in the early years following the financial crisis, but the Eurozone is still grappling with the issue. We think this one factor is the best explanation for the outperformance of US equities over Europe post-crisis. The S&P 500 is up 190% from the March 2009 lows, whilst Europe is up 120%.”
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Mark Zandi is chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the department in charge of consulting, advising and providing services for businesses and financial institutions. Among its many activities, the firm advices several European banks with regard to the EBA’s and ECB’s stress tests. Moody’s created this department in 2007, after buying Economy.com –Zandi’s analysis company.
MADRID | The Corner | Upcoming TLTRO in Sept 18 and Dec 11 will allow EZ banks to borrow an amount equivalent to 7% of what they currently lend to the private sector at 0.25% a year (excluding interbank loans and mortgages), breaking the vicious circle of high lending rates to companies, high credit risk and a sluggish economic performance, European Central Bank’s chief economist Peter Praet said on Wednesday.
MADRID | The Corner | While the European inflation remained at 0.5%, credit steeply contracted in May thus neutralising the tepid improvement of the lending activity during March and April, according to Afi. The decline in private credit accelerated in small peripheral countries, but it continued the same in Spain and Italy.
MADRID | The Corner | No matter whether they lend the funds on to the private sector, TLTRO is likely to be an attractively priced source of funding for banks, especially in the eurozone’s periphery. For those lenders “the costs of TLTRO could be as much as 109-114bp below equivalent wholesale funding for four years, or 68-73bp for two years if they do not increase net lending to the private sector,” an UBS report says. That being said, analysts aren’t sure this is particularly going to boost credit lending. In the graph you can see the dismal evolution of M3 in the 18 single currency area “Shame on the ECB, which has acted behind the curve as always,” The Corner senior economist Miguel Navascués states.
MADRID | By Ofelia Marín-Lozano | Now that stock markets are at maximum levels (absolute maximum for S&P 500 and relative one for Eurostoxx 50), stress tests are decisive to reactivate credit. They are already in the first phase (which consists in evaluating the assets’ quality or AQR) and the overall outcomes will presumably be published in November. It seems likely that credit will recover sooner, inasmuch as banks know their individual results and the ECB may advance some messages.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We announce the end of credit restrictions to the European banking thanks to the latest credit data, which went from -3% yoy to -2.8%. Our market strategist reaches the conclusion that we are seeing signs of lending recovery (see chart).