This article focuses on the 2020 US Election, which formally kicks off next week with the February 3 Iowa Caucuses. In this piece, experts at BNY Mellon Daniel Tenengauzer and John Velis explore how markets may react as political events unfold in the run-up to November 3.
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | The end of the year has served to dismiss some of the doubts that have distorted the decisions of the economic agents during the last months, ballasting the growth rates of the activity. Visibility has improved in the short term, yet uncertainty is here to stay
|Profiting from his return to Europe to celebrate the 70th anniversary of NATO, Donald Trump used the platform to launch the opening salvos in a new skirmish in his endlessly improvised “America First” trade wars. This time, Trump claims to be retaliating against France’s effort to resist the unfettered domination of the giant American tech monopolies that have spread across global markets, leaving little margin of maneuver to potential competitors who can’t match their size and reach.
Shaun Riordan | Is there a Manchurian candidate in the White House? While the US people decide who Trump is, Europe must decide whether it wants to be a player in the geopolitical chess game, or the chessboard on which others play.
Charles Hankla (The Conversation) | Just as America’s trade war with China may be winding down, its troubles with Europe seem to be growing.
Clinton Fernandes (The Conversation) | Silicon Valley may now be more popularly associated with software companies such as Google and Facebook but it takes its name from the material most used to make semiconductors. Semiconductors – or computer chips – power everything from mobile phones to military systems. The semiconductor industry sits at the centre of the modern world. This point is key to appreciating what’s going on in the US government’s battle with Chinese technology giant Huawei.
Shaun Riordan | We do not usually think of France´s dapper, sophisticated young president, the last hope of European liberal elites, pursuing the same objectives as America´s ageing and overweight bully, the sworn enemy of liberal internationalism. But both Macron and Trump agree on the need to end the conflict in Ukraine and re-integrate Russia into the international community.
Peter Isackson via Fair Observer | Politics and literature have much more in common than most people think, especially if we accept to consider Donald Trump as a major literary figure.
JP Marin-Arrese │ Trump’s volatile mood is wreaking carnage on investors’ confidence. It is a fact that the White House tenant longs to trigger huge uncertainty, even panic, among investors. Yet, by brushing away any hope to strike a truce with China he has outdone himself.
Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.