BofAML | No surprises. We do not expect any ECB action this week. After the package in March, we think the ECB will have a few months before going back to the drawing board. Dovish Fed tones and EUR appreciation do not help the ECB, but action beyond a reiteration of forward guidance seems very unlikely.
James Alexander via Historinhas | I remain a bit disappointed that Euro Area QE and negative rates are not proving more of a hit with the markets and thus the economy. But are things really as bad as painted by our friend Lars Christensen?
The ECB could end up with a new headache if the euro continues to appreciate as it has done over the last few weeks. In a short space of time, the eurozone currency has gone from 1,08 dollars to 1,14 dollars. Analysts believe Draghi will have to take some kind of action if it goes over 1,15 dollars.
James Alexander via Historinhas | What is more important the short, medium or long term? The recent gyrations of the EUR/USD exchange rate have grabbed a lot of attention since the start of the year. In theory the strong easing bias of the ECB versus the confusing position of the Fed should mean the EUR weakens versus the USD
Citi | ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré gave an interview to Politico on March 23, published on 30 March and featuring on the ECB’s website. Mr. Coeuré begins by explaining that the package announced on March 10 was “very potent, both in intensity and sheer volume”. On the subject of monetary policy tools at the ECB’s disposal, Mr. Coeuré notes that “negative interest rates are not our main instrument, they just support our overall policy. And looking ahead, we’re not short of instruments – our choice is quite large. We will be able to deal with adverse situations if necessary”.
Both main central banks face a challenging outlook. The ECB may have saved the day recently by showing it still commands enough firepower to support the economy, even if its room for manoeuvre seems hopelessly narrow. The Federal Reserve seems caught in a nasty trap.
UBS | The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reassessed its monetary stance at its quarterly March meeting today. After the European Central Bank (ECB) a week ago lowered its negative deposit rate for bank reserves by only 10 basis points to -0.40% and the main refinancing rate by 5 basis points to 0.00%, it became clear that the negative interest rate differential disfavouring the franc would not erode significantly.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has allowed Banco Santander to apply its own capital calculation model for its Brazilian subsidiary. The approval arrived seven days after Santander presented its 2015 results, so they don’t reflect the effect of the new measure.
UBS | President Draghi surprised the market positively, both in terms of the magnitude of some of the expected moves (QE extension in the upper end of the range) and also implementing new measures (acquisition of non-financial IG bonds in its asset purchases, and new targeted TLTRO). For (retail) banks like the Spanish, the balance of ECB’s actions has to be considered as positive, especially if trends seen in the swap market are confirmed in Euribor fixings.
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research | Ahead of today’s ECB meeting, we think the focus will need to be on QE, which we expect to be extended until September 2017 and accelerated by € 10bn/month. We also expect the ECB to make QE more credible