A soft landing is the Holy Grail of central bankers. The glory that accrues from avoiding the economic costs of a recession by skilful manipulation of interest rates. But do such efforts to avoid, or mitigate, recessions simply store up trouble for the future? Does seeking to avoid a recession simply lead to a worse recession in the future?
JP Marin-Arrese │Any seasoned central banker knows by heart that words rather than measures better serve monetary policy. The material effect any move delivers doesn’t match the impact on expectations and market sentiment an authoritative message conveys.
Christian Scherrmann (DWS) | As was expected , the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 base points to a range of 2.0-2.25% at the July meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
DWS | June was dominated by surprisingly dovish central banks, which lifted some equity markets to new highs and pushed some bond yields to new lows. But the joy is not untroubled.
Despite weak employment creation data, analysts at DWS point out that the US labour market probably remains too vigorous in general to justify the Fed cutting interest rates.
Central bank independence is increasingly at risk around the world.
Andrea Iannelli (Fidelity) | Central banks have again become the protagonists in the quarter which has just ended. A generalised movement towards more expansionary positions, with the Federal Reserve in the lead, supported risk tolerance and lifting all kinds of assets, reversing the poor returns registered in 2018.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | If in any country the word “socialist” is an insult, it is in the US of 2019. “Socialism” has become the war cry of the Republican party against the opposition Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, in large part because the media star of this party in the Congress, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, describes herself as a “democratic socialist”.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Donald Trump could nominate Herman Cain, an eccentric businessman who has accumulated various scandals and a questionable economic baggage, as a board member of the Federal Reserve. Cain is famous for having directed the El Padrino pizza chain and also for having been a senior executive at Burger King.
Pablo Pardo | With his trade war, Trump has accelerated the slowdown in China, and now the world´s second economy is buying fewer goods and services from the US. And from the rest of the world in general. Not only Apple has declared that its profits are going to be reduced by China´s slowdown. Also, for example, its main rival outside China, Samsung.