fiscal policy


Expectations about role of the State may be frustrated by declining spending and decreasing government effectiveness

Agnieszka Gehringer (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute) | Governments are increasingly being given new tasks to achieve various economic policy objectives. Looking at the major eurozone members, this report shows that high expectations about the role of the state in solving the most pressing problems may be frustrated by declining productivity of public spending and decreasing government effectiveness. Public spending in the four large euro area Member States, Germany, France,…

Spanish España.

A Decade Of Fiscal Folly

Fernando González Urbaneja | Both the current and the previous government (Rajoy and Sánchez or Montoro and Montero) have earned a page in Spanish fiscal history with the qualification of a confusing, witty and improvisational period. Both governments commissioned reports from groups of experts for a major tax reform. And both reports, of unquestionable technical quality and with interesting proposals, were buried in the drawer of documents to be forgotten….


Brussels Proposes To Keep Fiscal Rules Suspended For Another Year Because Of The War

On Wednesday 18 May, European Commission commissioners finally agreed to submit a proposal to European countries on Monday 23 May to suspend public debt and deficit targets for 2023, for the fourth consecutive year. The measure, which will still have to be validated by the member states, gives countries such as Spain an additional grace period to get their public accounts back on track after the Covid bill. The European…

european union flag

The IMF Calls In Brussels For Fiscal Rules In Europe To Be Applied According To The Debt Of Each Country

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the debate on whether or not to return to fiscal rules in the European Union is more timely than ever. Now the continent is going through a “second economic crisis” due to the war in Ukraine, after a first one due to the pandemic from which we have not yet recovered. Gita Gopinath, deputy director general of the IMF, said the new fiscal…

European fiscal stimuli

The ESM Suggests Raising The Public Debt Ceiling In EU Rules From 60% To 100% Of GDP

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) proposes raising the ceiling on public debt set by EU fiscal discipline rules from 60 to 100 per cent of GDP, and combining it with a rule limiting public spending to ensure fiscal sustainability, as reported by EFE. In a paper published in advance of the review of these rules, economists at the eurozone bailout fund argue that, in the current context, insisting on the…

The catalyst for European high yield spread widening against US was index composition changes

Between Europe And US…Clearly Europe

Morgan Stanley | The size of the Recovery Fund is very relevant, equivalent to 5% of the European Union’s GDP (10-15% in Greece, Spain and Italy). In contrast to the US, where the fiscal stimulus has been earmarked for more immediate/current spending, in Europe most of it is devoted to future investment with a long-lasting effect over the next 3-5 years. This long term duration is the key concept and the fundamental reason for our preference. 

consumption recovery 1

Consumption: Support Point For Recovery

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios ) | The first weeks of the opening of the economies are serving to gauge the response of consumption, a key variable in determining the profile and intensity of the recovery. In the US, the fiscal programmes for aid to families injected more than 300 billion dollars into disposable income in the second quarter. In Europe, instead of using direct aid as in the US, they have preferred to activate temporary employment suspension programmes (ERTE in Spain, kurzabeit in Germany, etc).

Global Economy

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).