Angela Freyre (Julius Baer) | Russia’s central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate to a post-Soviet low as the economy enters a deep recession fuelled by the fall in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic. The bank lowered its key rate by 100 basis points to 4.5%, following a 50 basis-point cut in April.
Eirini Tsekeridou (Julius Baer) | Oil prices have declined massively over the last weeks, as Russia and Saudi Arabia could not reach an agreement regarding output cuts. Saudi Arabia is trying to punish Russia, while Russia is seeking to hurt US oil producers due to US sanctioning of Russian companies. US shale producers, especially the highly leveraged ones, will face default as their breakeven price is about USD 50 per barrel.
Shaun Riordan | Is there a Manchurian candidate in the White House? While the US people decide who Trump is, Europe must decide whether it wants to be a player in the geopolitical chess game, or the chessboard on which others play.
Shaun Riordan | We do not usually think of France´s dapper, sophisticated young president, the last hope of European liberal elites, pursuing the same objectives as America´s ageing and overweight bully, the sworn enemy of liberal internationalism. But both Macron and Trump agree on the need to end the conflict in Ukraine and re-integrate Russia into the international community.
Shaun Riordan | I have been reading a whole series of market forecasts for 2019. While it is relieving that at last they include political or geopolitical factors, I was struck by those factors, which could have dramatic impact on companies or markets which were left out, or misinterpreted.
Shaun Riordan | Social media companies may be sophisticated in the way they monetise data, but they remain remarkable naïve, almost innocent, when it comes to politics.
Vladimir Putin secured an easy victory, and a second consecutive six-year term, in yesterday’s first round of presidential elections. With 99% of the votes counted, he has received 77% of votes, which will extend his 18-year in power until 2024. Putin’s re-election means stability in the corporate sector, a favourable outcome for bond investors.
Russia’s economy of 140 million people has managed to survive inflation (2.5%) and the fall in the rouble, although it needs to make the energy miracle last one decade more to offset sanctions.
For the moment, Russia considers what’s happening in Catalonia as an internal issue and the country’s television channels are focusing on the violence in the region, without getting to the political issue itself. For the time being. Except if the problem stops being a domestic one and – for whatever reason- becomes an international one.
Xavier Colás | Russia is hoping that in 2017 its economic indicators will look brighter again after three years of questions over the country’s economic health due to sanctions, rock-bottom oil prices and a rouble which has lost half of its value.