The thesis is reasonable and well-known: greater growth, lower deficit. But what happened in 2015 seems to corroborate another idea: a larger deficit (-5%) fuels the biggest growth in Europe (3.2%). So the government unilaterally raises the 2016 deficit target from 2.8% to 3.6%, while Brussels is going for 3.9%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will today begin its corporate debt purchasing programme (CSPP). This means it will acquire, via approximately 12 national central banks, investment grade debt issued by companies. Spain could benefit from this programme to the tune of nearly 60 billion euros.
June will be a breathtaking month. The outcome of the British referendum could spark shock waves, causing financial assets to plummet everywhere should the Leave camp win. France could be plunged into disarray as the bitter response to the rather mild labour market reform creates further turmoil and widespread strikes.
Fernando Rodríguez | Telxius Telecom, Telefonica’s new telecommunications’ infrastructure subsidiary, will build and manage Marea, the subsea cable across the Atlantic that Facebook and Microsoft will run from Virginia Beach in Virginia to Bilbao in Spain. The announcement comes at exactly the right time as Telxius’ IPO is about to happen on 2nd June. Analysts consulted by The Corner believe this will go down well with investors. It will also be a companion for Cellnex Telecom, as another representative from this sector in the Spanish stock market.
The European Commission did not want to meddle with Spain’s general elections on June 26th and has postponed until July its decision regarding a sanction for the country’s non-compliance with its deficit target. But none of the European community experts have ventured to confirm that this sanction will finally be imposed.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
Some drivers are so happy when they don’t have to pay their traffic fine immediately, but without realising that a few days they will receive official notification with a surcharge. Something like this has happened with Brussel’s decision to refrain from imposing an immediate fine on Spain for failing to meet its deficit commitment until June 26th. In exchange, the EC has demanded a tough adjustment amounting to 8 Bn€ over this year and next.
Isolux is a Spanish midcap which operates in the construction business and in the maintenance of large infrastructures in over 40 countries. It has been forced to reach an agreement with its principal creditors to avoid bankruptcy.
Spain depends on Europe, but in a rather odd way, because Europe is a carcass without a head and without any initiative. Europe has left us in doubt over our deficit because we were in an electoral period. And this brutal wear and tear, which has not been good for us, on the contrary, has not ended. After June 27, whatever happens, the government will be even weaker, whichever it is.