AXA IM | A number of political developments are likely to trigger volatility in 2016, especially around the month of June. However, the real risk lies in the longer term. For the first time since the 1950s, EU- scepticism is threatening the European project not just to stall, but to step back. Political risk in the euro area has taken a backseat in recent months.
Spain’s bancarisation is making life difficult for its independent financial advisers (Empresas de Asesoramiento Financiero Independiente or EAFIs), while excessive regulation is also clipping their wings.
If Telefonica approves the choice of current CEO José María Álvarez-Pallete to replace Cesar Alierta as Chairman, he will be the first Executive Chairman not to be appointed by the Spanish government. Alvarez-Pallete will face two main challenges: securing European Commission approval for the sale of O2 and dealing with the weakness of the LatAm economies, particularly Brazil.
The sale of Telefonica’s O2 to Hong Kong telecoms giant Hutchison remains up in the air. And the European Commission (EC), which has the final responsibility for the outcome of the transaction, is still being a dog in a manger, under pressure from the UK authorities.
Spain is the third most attractive European country for property investment in 2016, while Madrid is the continent’s second favourite city to invest in after London, according to the CBRE report “Global Investors Intentions.” The report also highlights the increasing sustainability of the European property sector, in comparison with last year’s performance and with other regions across the globe.
In the last few months, three leading Spanish companies, Parques Reunidos, Telepizza and Cortefiel, have announced plans to list on the stock market. This wouldn’t have been so odd if it weren’t for the fact that the trio were already in the market some years ago, and were then later delisted.
UBS | President Draghi surprised the market positively, both in terms of the magnitude of some of the expected moves (QE extension in the upper end of the range) and also implementing new measures (acquisition of non-financial IG bonds in its asset purchases, and new targeted TLTRO). For (retail) banks like the Spanish, the balance of ECB’s actions has to be considered as positive, especially if trends seen in the swap market are confirmed in Euribor fixings.
Trading volumes on the Spanish stock market have been worse than those of its European peers in February. This gives the impression that investors are rejecting Spain’s bourse, either because of political uncertainty, its exposure to Brazil, or else the eternal doubts about some of the Spanish banks.
The demise of Abengoa, the Spanish engineering and renewable energy firm, would have been a massive blow for its creditor banks. So the government and the banks have been working on a solution since the company entered pre-insolvency proceedings. The deal agreed this week hands over the majority of Abengoa’s capital to its creditors.