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World economy 29th June 2020

Consumption: Support Point For Recovery

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios ) | The first weeks of the opening of the economies are serving to gauge the response of consumption, a key variable in determining the profile and intensity of the recovery. In the US, the fiscal programmes for aid to families injected more than 300 billion dollars into disposable income in the second quarter. In Europe, instead of using direct aid as in the US, they have preferred to activate temporary employment suspension programmes (ERTE in Spain, kurzabeit in Germany, etc).

World economy 26th June 2020

The Gap Between The US And Europe On The Pandemic Front Is Getting Wider

Gilles Moec (AXA IM) | The divergence between Europe and the United States on the pandemic front continues.In the latter, the number of states facing an acceleration in the propagation of the virus rose furthe. Meanwhile, in Europe, while some clusters continue to appear, the speed of the epidemic is still markedly lower than when authorities considered it was safe to start re-opening the economy.

In the World, World economy, World politics 15th June 2020

The Gap Between The US Stock Market And The Real Economy Has Increased Sharply Due To Covid19

Last week there were sharp falls in the stock markets (-4%/-5% in Europe, -6%/-7% in the US), with the biggest drops since March. In a context of a significant disconnection between prices and fundamentals after the sharp rises from the March lows, which were discounting an unlikely “V” recovery, these downward moves seem logical. Also the upward excesses, which until last week were the protagonists. Our correspondent in Washington, Pablo Pardo, analyses this stock market and economic chaos.

Uncategorised 9th June 2020

Stunned By The US Jobs Report

Michelle Meyer & Alexander Lin (BofA Global Research) | The May jobs report was nothing short of stunning. The labor market recovery started earlier than expected as job growth rebounded by 2.5mn in May. In total, 22mn jobs were lost with a peak U-rate of 14.7%. The quick bounce in job growth reflects the “easy” rehiring. The path becomes more challenging thereaſter, with a long road to full employment.

In the World, World politics 6th June 2020

The Crisis of Presidentiality in the US

Peter Isackson | Can the oligarchs in Wall Street and Washington — a class that Trump himself belongs to despite his continuing to play the outsider — bring back some semblance of order in the face of growing discontent? Are there any imaginable reforms they could agree to and which the malcontents could accept? Or can they find some kind of improvised fix just to survive until the elections? The nation awaits a “presidential” response.

World economy 5th June 2020

US Stimulus Should Limit GDP Contraction This Year To 3.8% And An Above-Consensus 5.3% Rebound Next

David Page (AXA IM) | Yet even on our relatively bullish assessment the US economy will close 2021 1.7% below the level of GDP it would have achieved with potential growth from end-2019. This suggests the US economy would still exhibit spare capacity – a higher level of unemployment than at the start of 2020 and lower capacity utilisation, something that is likely to leave the Federal Reserve struggling to achieve its 2% inflation target – let alone anything higher.

World economy 4th June 2020

Why The US Dollar Remains Crucial For Hong Kong’s Economic Prosperity

Damian Tobin via The Conversation | One important pillar of Hong Kong’s economy remains unchanged and outside of Chinese government control – its currency, which is pegged to the US dollar via a currency board. This could have significant benefits for the city as it tries to deal with pressing socioeconomic challenges. But this also requires more public spending from the special administrative region’s government.

In the World, World politics 31st May 2020

The 2020 Pandemic Election

Saurabh Jha via Fair Observer| When the COVID-19 pandemic is dissected in the 2020 presidential election debates, Donald Trump will be at a disadvantage. The coronavirus has killed over 100,000 Americans and maimed thousands more. The caveat is that deaths per capita, rather than total deaths, better measure national failure, and by that metric the US fares better than Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom.

World economy 27th May 2020

How, For The USA, To Find A Balanced Momentum After Such A Shock?

Philippe Waechter (Natixis AM) | The CFNAI index, calculated by the Chicago Fed, is the best measure of the economic situation as it is. It is a composite of 85 indicators published in one month. It includes industrial production, retail sales, employment and many more. It is published late compared to the surveys, but it perfectly reflects the state of the business cycle. It reads on average over 3 months and when it is greater than -0.7, the probability of recession is almost zero. Below this threshold, the risk of recession is high. See here for more details. In April, the index dropped more than 10 points to -16.74 from -4.97 in March. Its three-month average was -7.22 compared to -1.69 in March. The indicator is well below the threshold of -0.7. As the graph shows, The index is also well below the measures observed in 2008/2009. The shock is of a different kind and magnitude never before seen. This curve has the same pace as that of employment which in April contracted by 20.5 million.

World economy 20th May 2020

The US Labor Market In The Corona Crisis vs 2008’s Great Recession

Agnieszka Gehringer ( Flossbach Von Storch Research Institute) | The labor market consequences of the corona crisis have been unprecedented. Roughly 21,4 million jobs have been destroyed within only two months, almost erasing the 22,4 million jobs created after the Great Recession of 2008/09. By comparison, during the Great Recession 8,7 million jobs were destroyed within the 25 months between February 2008 and February 2010

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