Top Stories

US

US labor market

World economy 20th May 2021

More US Jobs Available Than At Any Point In The Last 20 Years. What’s Going On In The Labour Market?

Felipe Villarroel (TwentyFour AM)| The latest batch of NFP data for April showed the biggest miss we can remember in terms of jobs created (266k versus an expected 1m), and taken at face value muted wage pressures as measured by average hourly earnings (AHE). At the same time, the likes of McDonald’s and Burger King were paying people just to attend interviews as they could not fill the positions they needed to operate their restaurants properly. So is this a case of subdued demand in the labour market with companies not hiring, or subdued supply with workers for whatever reason unwilling to fill vacancies?

US commercial banks outlook

World economy 15th May 2021

US Inflation Spike Brings Tapering Back On Fed Agenda

Keith Wade (Schroeders) | Headline CPI inflation rose to 4.2% year-on-year in April the highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile the core measure, which strips out food and energy prices, rose to 3%, a level last seen in 2006. It is unlikely that the inflation figures will spook the Federal Reserve, although they will mean an upward revision to its forecasts. More importantly, when combined with strong growth in GDP, it will have to start to think about slowing its asset purchases.

colonial pipeline

European economy 11th May 2021

Cyberattack On Largest US Oil-Products Pipeline: We Could See Europe Start To Ship Gasoline To The US

Aneeka Gupta (Wisdom Tree)| Colonial Pipeline Co., a supplier of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to the eastern US, was forced to halt operations on Friday owing to a ransomware attack that affected some of its IT systems. If the outage were to last for an extended period of time it could have far reaching effects on the oil markets extending beyond the US and impact Europe as well. In order to plug the shortfall in gasoline in the US East Coast we could see Europe start to ship gasoline to the US.

bridge general

Relevant News Item 31st March 2021

Waiting For Biden’s New $3 Bn Infrastructure Plan

President Biden is set to announce his plan for additional fiscal stimulus today. Previous reports suggest that the new US stimulus package to be proposed by President Joe Biden calls for $3 trillion in new spending, although reports in the Washington Post raise the figure in Biden’s proposal to $4 trillion, which would be funded by tax increases of $3 trillion, up from the $1 trillion initially estimated.

Change of cycle to cyclical stocks to defensive

In the World, World economy 22nd March 2021

US Stock Market: Rational Exuberance?

CaixaBank Research (Adriá Morron and Alex Ruiz) | Since the lowest point recorded last March, the main index for the US equity has risen almost non-stop by around 70%. In recent weeks, this rally has also been accompanied by dynamics in certain US equity segments that are reminiscent of events followed by major stock market adjustments in the past. Is the US equity market decoupling from economic fundamentals?

How a government shutdown affects the economy

In the World, World economy 18th March 2021

The US Earmarks €3.3 Tr To Fight The Effects Of The Pandemic; The EU Has Not Yet Disbursed Even €750 Bn

Pablo Pardo (Washington) | What if it turns out that we are going to come out of the Covid-19 recession too quickly? In Europe that sounds like a joke, of course, thanks to the disaster organized by the European Commission with the purchase of the vaccines, and the insistence of the northern EU countries that no funds should be committed for the revival of the lazy southern ones. But that is not the case in the US, where the vaccine campaign is going much faster, and the public authorities have not been shy about spending to stimulate the economy.

JoeBiden

In the World, World economy 1st March 2021

Bond Markets Warm Up To The Approval Of The US $1,9 Tr Stimulus Package In Early March

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Joe Biden’s proposed $1,9 Tr stimulus bill will run its race in Senate next week, as House Democrats passed the legislation on Friday. The package includes $1400 direct payments to most Americans, a $400 weekly jobless benefit and an extension of unemployment insurance programs to a larger share of eligible candidates. The bill also includes $20bn for Covid-19 vaccinations, $50bn for testing and $350bn into state and local aids. The plan also aims to hike the federal minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025, although this particular amendment hangs on a thin balance.

US against Europe

European economy 25th February 2021

Between Europe And US…Clearly Europe

Morgan Stanley | The size of the Recovery Fund is very relevant, equivalent to 5% of the European Union’s GDP (10-15% in Greece, Spain and Italy). In contrast to the US, where the fiscal stimulus has been earmarked for more immediate/current spending, in Europe most of it is devoted to future investment with a long-lasting effect over the next 3-5 years. This long term duration is the key concept and the fundamental reason for our preference. 

Biden Yellen tandem

Relevant News Item 20th January 2021

Waiting for President Biden, Next Treasury Secretary Yellen Goes All Out With The Stimulus Plan

The appointment of the day will be in the United States, where Biden will take office as the country’s 40th President. Donald Trump will not attend the simple inauguration ceremony.The health and economic crises are Biden’s main challenges for the current legislature, including the approval of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Just yesterday Janet Yellen, who will serve as Treasury Secretary in the Biden Administration, defended that stimulus plan in her speech at the Senate. “We must act big,” she said.