Intermoney | US foreign trade posted a $78.8 billion deficit in July, which was within our forecast, widening the gap to the highest level in two years, driven by a surge in goods imports. But it also reflected the intention of companies to ensure adequate supply in the face of a possible dock workers’ strike, which led the value of imports of goods and services to rise by 2.1%. And…
Bankinter | Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that with inflation moving back towards target and unemployment levels slightly above what they anticipated, it makes the most sense to implement the first rate cut at the September 18 meeting. However, he added that before taking any decision, the two remaining inflation data until the meeting (PCE and CPI) and above all the employment data (6 Sept.) will be crucial. Under this…
Bankinter | Consumer Confidence has improved more than expected in August. It has risen to 103.3 versus the 101.0 expected and 101.9 previous (revised from 100.3 points). Both components improve: Expectations to 82.5 from 81.1 (revised from 78.2) and Current Situation to 134.4 from 133.1 (revised from 133.6). Case-Shiller House Prices barely decelerated in June, highlighting the robustness of the real estate sector: +6.47% year-on-year in June versus +6.50% expected…
Link Securities | The US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported during the 12-month period to March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. Thus, real job growth was almost 30% lower than the 2.9 million net new jobs initially reported in the period from April 2023 to March 2024. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a smaller downward revision of 500,000 jobs. However, job creation over the…
Bankinter: The leading Indicator deteriorated more than expected in July (-0.6% month-on-month from -0.2% previously and -0.4% expected). The Leading Indicator fell by – 0.6% (month-on-month) in July; in year-on-year terms -5.2%, which broke with the slight trend of improvement of the last six months. From a historical perspective, the indicator registers the lowest level since November 2016 (one tenth below April 2020). By components, the improvement in Consumer Orders…
Link Securities | According to data from the Labor Department, the number of jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending 3 August, below the consensus forecast of 240,000 claimants. Despite the drop, the actual figure remains significantly above the annual average, indicating that while the US labour market has historically been tight, it has softened since its post-pandemic peak. Also, the four-week moving average of initial…
Link Securities | US construction spending fell 0.3% on a monthly basis in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of $2.148 billion, following a revised 0.4% decline in the previous month, and against consensus forecasts for a 0.2% improvement. The reading marks the second consecutive month of falling spending, as private consumption contracted 0.3% in the period, driven by a 0.3% drop in the residential segment, specifically in single-family projects…
BancaMarch: The United States is trying to act on Chinese steel and aluminium entering through the Mexican border. The Biden administration has included tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium not smelted in Mexico, the United States or Canada. In this way, it aims to prevent the entry of Chinese metal circulating through Mexico in order to avoid the tariffs already imposed in May on various products of…
BancaMarch: In the US, Monday’s highlights were consumer credit data which improved in May to $11.354 billion, a figure that points to a revival in consumer credit as this figure is well above the previous month’s $6.485 billion. On the other hand, the New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey also showed a slowdown in inflationary pressures with consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months at +3.02% versus +3.17% previously….
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined in June, although somewhat less than expected: specifically, this indicator stood at 100.4 from 101.3 previously and slightly above the 100 expected. This lower confidence was mainly explained by the decline in the expectations component (73 versus 74.9 previously), as the reading of the current situation improved (141.5 versus 140.8 previously). Still in the US, the S&P Case-Shiller index of house prices in…