What to expect from Spanish banks in Q2’15
The Corner | July 26, 2015 | Spanish listed banks’ Q2’15 earnings season starts today. Analysts at AFI are less optimistic than consensus estimates.
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Oil and gas: The struggle to stay relevant
July 24, 2015 | UBS | Sector performance since crude began to slide again has, unsurprisingly, been poor: EU integrateds are down 11% since the May peak, underperforming the wider market by 11%, and the US peers down 10%.
“This is new in Spain’s history: employment growing faster than GDP”
MADRID | July 24, 2015 | By Fernando Barciela | Economist, businessman and former minister at several Spanish socialist cabinets between 1982 and 1993, Carlos Solchaga praises the big steps taken by the Spanish labour reform –the main of which he claims were made in the years ‘93 and ‘94, while he was a member of the government. This is the first part of our conversation.
China flash PMI falls to a 15 month low
HONG KONG | July 24, 2015 | Barclays | The Markit “flash” manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.2 in July, reaching a 15-month low (consensus: 49.7; Barclays: 49.7). The weaker PMI supports our view that the economy is not on solid footing, and we look for a flat growth profile in H2.
For Greek banks, it’s business as unusual
ATHENS | July 23, 2015 | By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | Now that the rather bizarrely termed “bank holiday” has come to an end in Greece after three weeks – although domestic and external capital controls – continue, it is appropriate to take stock of the situation and inquire where do we go from here.
Spain in “solid recovery mode” (Barclays)
The Corner | July 23, 2015 | The Spanish economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q1 15. Q2 data suggest that activity accelerated to 1.1% q/q, taking full-year 2015 growth to 3.3%, on Barclays estimates. “We think that the risks to the Spanish growth outlook are balanced, especially as the likelihood of Grexit has dropped,” the bank analysts commented on their July economic bulletin.
Spain unemployment sees biggest Q2 fall since 2008
The Corner | July 23, 2015 | Spain unemployment fell by 295,600 people, or 5.4 % in Q2 from Q1. It is the second major Q2 drop since at least 2008, according to the Active Population Survey.
Spain public debt reaches 97.4 % of GDP in May
The Corner | July 21, 2015 | Spain’s total public administration debt stood at €1.040 trillion at end-May, up €7.890 billion from a month earlier and representing approximately 97.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Bank of Spain. The government expects public debt to reach 98.9% of GDP in 2015.
Iran agreement: Is Obama channeling Nixon?
The nuclear deal with Iran, like Nixon’s opening to China in 1972, has the potential to be a geopolitical game-changer—if it can get through Congress first.
What China should learn from Greece’s cautionary tale
BERKELEY | July 18, 2015 | By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | The Greek crisis and the sharp increase in volatility on Chinese stock markets have been the two principal sources of financial headlines – and worries – in recent days. To be sure, the situations in Athens and Shanghai are quite different, yet they have a common set of implications.