Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The eurozone is struggling with a strong divergence between a weak industrial sector plagued by supply bottlenecks, higher input costs and weakening sentiment on the one hand, and a solid services sector, which is experiencing a post-Covid rebound. We expect 2.9% GDP growth in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. Among major economies, 2022 GDP growth since our previous Economic Outlook in April has been downwardly…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole world, including Spain. Spain will grow by 4% in 2022, which is eight tenths of a percentage point lower than the forecast published in April. The fall in GDP will be more pronounced next year if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. According to the report ‘World Economic Outlook’, published on Tuesday, the IMF considers that in…
J.P. Marín-Arrese |Christine Lagarde announced the first rate hike in a decade as an upfront offensive against inflationary pressures. While no one doubts this tightening aims at cutting short the current price race, the claim that it is an early reaction fails to match the records. For more than a year, all advanced economies have witnessed soaring prices. Yet, the ECB dismissed this trend as a temporary mismatch betwen demand…
Peter Goves, MFS Investment Management | A historic decision and the end of an era. No more negative policy rates from the ECB following the bold 50bp hike at the July meeting. Clearly, the ECB remains focused on its primary mandate: price stability. The shift in guidance is interesting and makes the ECB much data dependent as an institution. In turn, it likely means short rates will retain their sensitive…
Between January and May, the Spanish trade deficit increased to 26.569 billion euros, 6.5 times more than in 2021. This is the highest level since the Great Recession of 2008, when it reached 42.63 billion euros. The figures for exports of goods to other countries have been above the maximums of the historical series, which began in 1995, since 2022 began. In the cumulative figure between January and May, sales…
Intermoney | Colonial (Hold, Target Price 9,5 euros) celebrated its Capital Markets Day (CMD) in Paris on Monday. The socimi confirmed its main strategic points, such as focus on its three markets, maintaining a stable financial structure, asset rotation policy and reinforcing ESG policy. In the face of doubts from some investors, Colonial confirmed the high occupancy levels in its portfolio in service, and in the one where it will be…
Intermoney | The lack of personnel and strikes are leading to the suspension of over 40,000 operations out of those forecast for Europe over the summer months (25,000 alone between British Airways, Easyjet and Lufthansa). They are also provoking innumerable delays and problems with luggage. The fast increase in demand has been mixed with both the airlines and the airports’ difficulties’ in recovering the volume of their workforces which decreased…
Renta 4 | During Q2’22 the stock market indices have had to deal with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the environment of high inflation, the uptick in IRRs and downward revisions to economic growth. In this context, the IBEX Medium Cap (-1.5% in Q2’22) has offered a relatively better performance out of the three benchmark indices (-4.1% of the IBEX-35 and -6.1% of IBEX Small Caps). Our Selection…
Intermoney | Acciona (Buy, Target Price 210 euros/share) continues to grow in the public works sector in Australia. It has been chosen as one of the contractors to build a 15km ring road in Queensland. The overall budget for the project is around 1 billion Australian dollars (some 700 million euros). Along with a local firm, Acciona has won, provisionally, one of the lots awarded with a investment budget of…
Morgan Stanley | A more positive tone or guidance concerning NII should continue providing support for the Spanish banks. We recall that last week we raised our estimates for NII by an average 5% after incorporating 100 bp of rate hikes vs a previous 50 bp. This should offset the impact of an average 15 bp in CET1 due to the rise in bond yields. Asset quality should remain stable. BBVA…