A Price For All Seasons
BARCLAYS | New unplanned outages look unlikely to abate in the next couple of months, which have contributed to a tighter 1H16 oil market balance and new variability in the price forecast.
Markets
BBVA Q1’16 Falls 53.8% To 709 Mn Euros On Currency Impact
Spain’s second biggest bank BBVA said it posted a 53.8% drop in net profit to 709 million euros in the first quarter to March from a year earlier. The bank explained that quarterly results were hampered by a number of factors, including the impact of exchange rates, lower results from NTI and the lack of corporate operations.
Gold Resilience Triggers Fear Of Missing The Move Further
UBS | The increase in positioning as of the latest CFTC report dated April 12 confirms persistent interest to hold gold and in a sense highlights that patience among market participants is becoming increasingly stretched. Many have been waiting for a deeper price correction to build gold positions or to add to current longs, but this has so far been elusive.
The Cost Of Capital Is Rising –Yet It Is Hard To Estimate By How Much
Higher capital requirements after the financial crisis are pushing up the cost of capital for European banks. The key question is by how much, since the return on equity required in order to compensate investors for the risk they undertake can be difficult to determine because it is unobservable.
Brazil Going Down Argentina’s Path? Just Not Yet
Julius Baer | Argentina is back on the radar in the fixed-income space. This could be the blueprint for every economic restructuring in emerging markets for decades to come. We hope the speed and efficiency in transforming the economy will be held up by the Macri government. Any chances of Brazil becoming the next Argentina anytime soon? Not yet. But new elections and a shift in leadership could open similar dynamics in 2017.
Doha meeting: No Deal, As Politics Trump Economics
BARCLAYS | The Doha meeting, among 16 oil producers (OPEC and non-OPEC) concluded on Sunday, without an agreement on a production freeze. The much-awaited meeting exposed the political rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and ultimately doomed the agreement. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed on a draft in advance to be put forward to the group, but the Saudis changed their stance on Sunday morning.
US Markets Need More Than Another 200.000 Increase In Payrolls
AXA IM | Yet when looking at the US economy we see low unemployment, continued strong job gains, increased personal income and rising core inflation. The traditional end-of-cycle dynamics (rapid increase in wage costs, monetary tightening, reduced profitability) are not screaming “recession” at us.
Buybacks Are More A Symptom, Not A Cause
A buyback is the repurchase by a company of its outstanding shares in the stock market. They can have a variety of intentions for doing that, but the most immediate impact is to keep the share price higher than it would be without this additional demand.
High Dividends Are Not Necessarily Good For Share Prices
Deutsche AM | Volatile stock markets trending sideways. Ultra-low interest. This is hardly the stuff investor dreams are made of. Under company’s value and what is already priced in.
Copper and oil: who’s leading whom?
BARCLAYS | Copper and oil price moves have tracked each other fairly closely for most of the year so far but have diverged recently as the supply-side support that has emerged for oil has not been replicated in the metals market.