When The Refugee Crisis Met The Bailout Review
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | After weeks of dancing around the issue, it seems that Greece and its lenders have started, even tangentially, to link the refugee crisis and the pending bailout review.
In Europe
Corporate Investment In The Eurozone: A Diverse Picture
UBS | We conducted a survey to determine whether Eurozone corporates are starting to invest again, and how this would be funded – a crucial question not just for the business cycle, but also for individual sectors and stocks.
QE the main dish
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research | Ahead of today’s ECB meeting, we think the focus will need to be on QE, which we expect to be extended until September 2017 and accelerated by € 10bn/month. We also expect the ECB to make QE more credible
Swiss Experience Could Pave Draghi’s Way On Deposit Rate
The market consensus is that the ECB will cut its deposit rate at tomorrow’s monthly meeting. The question is by how much. Consensus points to 10 bps to -0.4%, while other more agressive bets point to -0.55%. Switzerland has applied a negative deposit rate since January 2015, but experience seems to show this option is counterproductive for the banking sector.
The ECB Will Prefer To Be Safe Rather Than Sorry
The ECB’s main priority will be to fuel confidence in the financial markets and inflation will be its alibi for this. In February, eurozone CPI receded to -0.2% year-on-year and, in the short term, the region should be prepared for negative rates to continue.
The State Of Italian, German Banks Casts Doubts On Stress Tests Efficiency
The European Banking Authority (EBA) has finished defining the nature of the stress tests, as well as the scenarios the 51 largest European banks will be subject to in 2016. But given the situation of the Italian and German lenders, after the last stress test, there are more and more people who believe there is a certain amount of complicity going on to hide the real situation of many of the banks in both countries.
The Refugee Crisis And The Beast Within
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | As symbols go, the imaginary pig’s head in William Golding’s Lord of the Flies requires little explanation. Its meaning is summed up in one line of the unnerving classic. “Fancy thinking the beast was something you could hunt and kill!” says the fly-infested head. “You knew, didn’t you? I’m part of you?”
Techniques For A Grand Coalition
Germany has a very broad history in government coalitions. So is there anything in its formula that makes it exportable to other parts of the world, including Spain? Whatever happens in Germany in the coming months, there are a couple of points worth taking into account.
Euro Area Inflation To Turn Negative In 2H16, Falling To 0.6% In May
Goldman Sachs | While we expect that the combination of the fall in oil prices, the rise in the Euro and the weakening of equity prices will have relatively limited effects on growth, the effects on the near-term inflation outlook are likely to be much more substantial.
A ‘Brexit’ Map for Sterling
UBS | A date for referendum is set and the pound is getting pounded. The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the UK announced that the referendum vote will take place on 23 June 2016.