J.P. Marin-Arrese | When it comes to sending messages to the market, Jerome Powell is proving less conventional and more straightforward than Mario Draghi. The former added fuel to the fire by delivering a forthright appraisal of the strength of US growth, the latter announced the ECB would scrap the QE scheme by the end of the year.
One of the more interesting stories that seems to have flown beneath the radar of the foreign exchange market this week was that the US government has quietly asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers to increase oil production by around 1 mn barrels per day, according to Simon Derrick Chief currency strategist of BNY Mellon.
US corporate debt rose to 45% of GDP at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis that began in 2008 , the same level it reached at the height of the dot.com bubble in 2000/01
Shaun Riordan | Trump’s behaviour at the Singapore Summit with Kim Jung Un has little to do with foreign policy, or indeed North Korea. Like his attacks on allies at the G7 Summit last week, it is aimed at the mid-term elections for Congress. Long-time US allies count for little compared to Trump’s domestic political needs. Europe must take responsibility for its own future.
Taking on the leadership of the Commonwealth is a boost for the country embattled in precarious Brexit negotiations and trying to reimagine its place in the world.
US imposed steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) duties on Europe, Canada and Mexico on May 31, reflect Trump’s view of the world economy as a zero-sum game, meaning each country has to fight tooth-and-nail to get its hands on the biggest slice of the pie. As pointed by Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist at Ostrum AM, “this view is admittedly not helpful in understanding economic and growth momentum, but it is the view we are dealing with here.”
China has the world’s second largest economy and, at circa US$12tn, the world’s third largest bond market. According to AXA IM’ findings this market will continue to grow and transform with the rest of the economy, which “we believe will become more capital-market oriented and open to foreign investors
Analysts increasingly talk of a VUCA world – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Companies are waking up to the political and geopolitical threats to their international operations. But too often they limit their response to buying political risk reports on the countries they are operating in, or thinking of entering.
For any investor who believes that $70/barrel is more or less the right price, then the European oil firms are currently fairly priced. Alphavalue recently upped their earnings forecasts to include $70/barrel as a new normality. This leaves the sector with an upside potential of +6% on a 6-month horizon.
F. William Engdahl via Caixin | Washington’s recent trade actions are aimed foursquare at China, not at the EU or other trade partners. However, the aim is not to reduce China exports to the U.S. The aim is a fundamental opening-up of the Chinese economy to the Washington free-market liberal reforms that China has steadfastly resisted.