Donald Trump has finally triumphed in the US presidential elections, after winning in key states like Florida, Ohio and Pennyslvania. The Republican Party has a secured control of the House of Representatives (the lower house of the US Congress) and it also looks like it will maintain control of the Senate (the upper house).
Natixis AM | The two US presidential contenders offer very different programs, and often vastly diverging, solutions. The combination of both would have a number of somewhat contradictory effects that would affect all US citizens.
My view is that recessions don’t come along for any real reasons, the cycles are not real. They have financial origins. This is where I see the risk: that an unexpected event leads to a plunge in the stock markets (don’t lets forget that world markets are highly correlated, and one can make the other move), and this ends up hitting the banking sector.
Deutsche AM | Should investors care about political campaigns? As we argued in the CIO View Special introducing our 2016 U.S. elections watch, it is easy to get carried away by rash campaign promises in the ups and downs of 24-hour news cycles
J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | It’s still early days yet to affirm that the uptick in medium and long-term interest rates really reflects a change in trend. But it’s true that the central banks in the main developed countries are sending ever more clear signals about the limits of continuing to increase expansionary monetary policy.
BoAML | We believe that nominal US rates are biased lower heading into a period of policy uncertainty including the US Presidential contest, European elections, and continued negotiations over Article 50. We continue to think that there may be a re-pricing of uncertainty premium over the next month.
Ahmed Ezzeldin | Since oil prices plummeted from around $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to $50 in September 2016, the fiscal crisis of Saudi Arabia has deepened further. These signals point in one direction: The golden days of the generous Saudi state might be coming to an end.
The financial world can also become the best scenario for a real thriller. While movies use cemeteries and psychiatric hospitals to cause panic, finances can make markets shake with low interest rates, the volume of global debt and the size of the Eurozone’s banking industry.
Peter Isackson | The fact-checking is finished, and the polls to determine who won and who lost will soon be wiped from our collective memory. While it lasted, it wasn’t exactly waterboarding but for many it was an unambiguous case of torture. The three debates are over, praise the Lord. America is now entering the brief phase in which it can look back at the weirdest US presidential campaign in history.
Mark Tinker at AXA IM | While investors wait for clarity on US politics, a revisit to our balance sheet approach to economics shows that data on US household wealth and income growth undermines the widespread ‘Great Recession’ meme. US household wealth is up 37% since 2010 and disposable income growth is up 4%.