Do the maths: the curb on migration will shrink US GDP
Without its own demography and without immigration, it’s impossible for the Trump administration’s forecast for annual US GDP growth of 3.5% over the next years to be met.
In the World
The Trade Deficit Doesn’t Foretell GDP Changes
Justin Irving | A banal assertion is often made in the financial press when trade deficit figures are released. If the deficit widens, the financial media will tell you that this is bad for the current-quarter GDP number. If the deficit narrows, you’ll hear the opposite.
Is Currency Manipulation Still A Problem?
Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | During the U.S. electoral campaign, candidate Donald Trump repeatedly promised that he would brand China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. On Feb. 24 — his 36th day in office— President Trump then renewed his criticism, calling China a “grand champion” of currency manipulation.
Inflation-Linked Bonds Are Back Against A Backdrop Of Rising Prices
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | As inflation increases, the TIPS (treasury inflaction protected securities) are the asset which offer the best peformance, ahead of commodities and equities (….)much better than traditional bonds in the case of rising inflation, very similar in the case of a decline in activity and worse in the case of falling inflation.
Chinese Investors: paying to be well informed ahead of investing
Chinese investors want to make money and insist on having good information. Data applications are appearing on demand and there is a record level of collaboration on information amongst big businessmen.
Dismantling Donald Trump And His Policies
With his policies, particularly protectionism, Trump is about to throw the US’ world leadership in the bin. He sold an illusion to his voters since the industrial jobs which disappeared with globalisation and technology will not return. What is clear is that the consequences will hurt us all.
Trump vs. Buffett: The Two Sides of Billionaire Culture
This year may be remembered as either the beginning or the end of the golden age of billionaires. One has miraculously become president of the United States. According to Oxfam, the eight richest billionaires in the world hold as much wealth as the poorer half of humanity. One of those eight, Warren Buffett, has recently been canonized in a rather hagiographic HBO documentary that retraces Buffett’s career.
Why China is Shifting to a ‘Neutral’ Monetary Policy Stance
Hu Shuli via Caixin | It has been six years since China adopted what has been tagged “a prudent monetary policy stance” in 2011. In practice, policies have been slightly eased to alleviate pressure from a slowing economy and rein in financial market fluctuations.
Russia: It’s a tough nut (as well hard to reform)
Xavier Colás | Russia is hoping that in 2017 its economic indicators will look brighter again after three years of questions over the country’s economic health due to sanctions, rock-bottom oil prices and a rouble which has lost half of its value.
On the Political Nature of Monetary Policy
Francesco Saraceno | Munchau recently argued that central banks’ choices are increasingly political in nature, especially if their mandate is broad, as is the case for example of the Fed. His argument is that a broad mandate implies tradeoffs, and as such it does not go well with central bank independence.