BARCLAYS | Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budg et deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.
The decline in world trade, particularly in Asia, highlights an important contradiction in the markets: asset prices are rising, but growth estimates and earnings forecasts for 2016 are being revised downwards.
Fernando Barciela | The Federal Reserve’s minutes which were released last Wednesday show that a rate hike is firmly on the cards for this December. But almost everybody seems to think that – if it happens – the rate increase probably will be small, a quarter of a percentage point at most. And, also very importantly, the pace of rate increases after that hike will be gradual. Before any further decision about future hikes the Fed will want to study the consequences.
Peter Isackson | The horrendous and carefully synchronized attacks in Paris on November 13 have provided a new occasion to fill the airwaves and pages of the press with the familiar themes, memes and sentiments our skilled rhetoricians in politics and the media are so good at trotting out.
From July 2014 to date, the dollar has risen by 17% and this increase is one of the reasons why the U.S. economy registered paltry growth of only 2% y-o-y in the third quarter. But the market thinks that the strong dollar is here to stay and it is becoming a factor that US policymakers must consider.
BARCLAYS | The bank’s overall assessment of the economy was unchanged (‘recover moderately’), while it expects inflation expectations “to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective,” adding that “some indicators have shown relatively weak developments.’
James Alexander via Historinhas | The inflation doom-mongers are out again with US Consumer Price Index numbers and, to a lesser extent, in the UK where, headline inflation really is just too low for most hawks to shout too much about steady core inflation.
Ofelia Marín- Lozano | The close to 40% drop in raw material prices over the last year has been taken as an unmistakable sign of a strong slowdown in China, auguring a very negative outlook for producing countries. But the market has seen that the alarm bells sounded over China have been clearly unfounded, as major global companies like Apple are still seeing high levels of sales in the country.
Fed President Janet Yellen has pointed out very politely that the law to reform the central bank is “a serious mistake.” She believes monetary policy cannot be linked to indicators like in a mathematical formula.
Wang Xiaoqing via Caixin | The huge e-commerce day is a windfall for Alibaba, but a headache for sellers and brand names, not to mention the economy.