Global trade growth is not picking up
LONDON | World trade volumes –for both goods and services– have risen by less than global GDP over the past four years. This is an unprecedented outcome in post WW2 history, UBS analysts point out.
World economy
FED keeps the door open in July
LONDON | Barclays | The US dollar strengthened after the FOMC left the door open for a September move, although it did not provide any strong signal for the timing of the first hike.
Oil and gas: The struggle to stay relevant
July 24, 2015 | UBS | Sector performance since crude began to slide again has, unsurprisingly, been poor: EU integrateds are down 11% since the May peak, underperforming the wider market by 11%, and the US peers down 10%.
Et tu Singapore? Another central bank suffocates the economy?
July 22, 2015 | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes‘ Historinhas | Singapore is every economist’s favorite nation, for its often free-market or price-sensitive approach to government. And the city-state has boomed for generations, verifying economists are right. But now, reports The Economist in its July 18 issue, Singapore’s productivity is dying on the vine, much like that of the United States, or Europe.
Iran agreement: Is Obama channeling Nixon?
The nuclear deal with Iran, like Nixon’s opening to China in 1972, has the potential to be a geopolitical game-changer—if it can get through Congress first.
What China should learn from Greece’s cautionary tale
BERKELEY | July 18, 2015 | By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | The Greek crisis and the sharp increase in volatility on Chinese stock markets have been the two principal sources of financial headlines – and worries – in recent days. To be sure, the situations in Athens and Shanghai are quite different, yet they have a common set of implications.
Can a modern economy generate Jeb Bush’s real 4% GDP growth? Yes, but not with tight money
NEW YORK | July 17, 2015 | By Benjamin Cole via Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | GOP presidential hopeful Jeb Bush has generated some blog-blabbing on his pronouncement that the U.S. GDP could and should grow at 4% real annually.
Chinese bubble trouble: halfway through?
LONDON | July 17, 2015 | UBS | Property activity corrected visibly in 2014 and H1 2015, with declining property starts and weaker construction dragging down China’s industrial sector and GDP growth.
China’s Pensions Poised for Stock Market Play
BEIJING | July 16, 2015 | By Shi Rui, Liu Jiaying and Chen Xinlei via Caixin | Authorities are fleshing out a plan that would let country’s locally managed pensions buy and sell stock on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
Iranian nuclear deal reached adding to oversupplied oil market
July 15, 2015 | UBS | Lifting sanctions would add more production to an already oversupplied market.