World economy

eeuu capitolioCM

Trump’s fiscal plan includes proposal to increase debt by $4 billion

Norbolsa | Republicans introduce the fiscal plan in Congress, which includes the tax cuts promised by Trump during his campaign (making the tax cuts from the first term permanent; tax exemptions for tips, overtime, private education payments, pensions and local tax cuts). No estimate of the cost (revenue shortfall from the plan) has been provided, which they hope to offset with cuts to the Medicaid healthcare programme, other spending cuts…


China EEUU choque 1

US and China suspend most tariffs on each other’s products for 90 days

Link Securities | According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States and China announced that they had agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s products for a period of 90 days while trade negotiations continue. The United States announced that it would reduce its ‘reciprocal’ tariff on Chinese products from 145% to 30%. China announced that it would reduce its tariff on US products from 125% to 10%….


Taiwan

A “Mar-a-Lago Accord” for the Taiwan Dollar? The Economic and Geopolitical Consequences

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) tends to be a boring currency with limited volatility, but the sudden appreciation – if not revaluation – on 2nd and 5th May has surprised the world. The fact that it happens while Taiwan holds negotiation talks with the Trump administration is telling, although there is no official acknowledgement of the coincidence.Until the recent appreciation, the performance of the TWD…


china aranceles

Chinese shipping companies resume purchasing space for US-bound goods after cancellations due to tariffs

Link Securities | According to Reuters, shipping agencies based in China have resumed purchasing container space for goods bound for the US after a series of cancellations imposed by US tariffs, as both governments prepare to begin trade negotiations. In this regard, the agency notes that trade between the world’s two largest economies has plummeted since US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese-made products on 10 April,…


acerinox industria acero

US tariff uncertainty causes Acerinox’s profit to drop to €10 million in Q1 2025 from €53 million in Q1 2024

Renta 4 | Negative. Acerinox has published its results for Q1 2025, which reflect the slowdown in demand caused by uncertainty generated by tariffs in the United States, a circumstance that has caused Q1 2025 figures to be slightly below our estimates and those of the market consensus (Q1 2025 EBITDA €102 million, compared to Renta 4’s estimate of €111 million, and €109 million, consensus). Neutral/slightly negative impact on the…


sacyr 4 588x353

Sacyr wins water concession in Chile with initial investment of €260m

Intermoney | Sacyr (SCYR) (Buy, Target Price €4.4/share), the Group has been awarded a water cycle concession in the region of Antofagasta (Chile), which will involve an initial investment of €260 million, with a duration of 35 years. This is the largest water reuse project in Latin America, which involves the construction of a wastewater treatment plant for subsequent commercialisation. The main function of the project will be to capture…


EEUU deficit comercial

US imports increase 4.4% to new record high of $419 billion

Link Securities | The Department of Commerce reported that the US trade deficit stood at $140.5 billion in March, reaching a new monthly record and exceeding the $132.4 billion projected by the FactSet consensus of analysts. In February, the trade deficit stood at $123.2 billion. In March, imports rose 4.4%, reaching a new all-time high of $419 billion, as many customers brought forward purchases in anticipation of the upcoming tariff…


eeuu mercado laboral

US non-farm job creation in April beats expectations, but previous record revised downward

Bankinter | Non-Farm Job Creation (April) beats expectations, but revises downward from previous record: 177K against 138K expected and 185K previous. Unemployment Rate repeats at 4.2% as expected and Average Wages/Hour remain at 3.8% year-on-year versus 3.9% year-on-year expected. Bankinter’s analysis team’s view: The data as a whole is consistent and, therefore, positive in the current context in which the US economy finds itself. The labour market continues to show…


OPEC post mortem

OPEC agrees to increase production in June by 411,000bd despite lower demand estimates

Bankinter | OPEC agrees to increase production in June by 411,000bd. As a reference, in April OPEC increased its production by 138,000bd and 411,000bd in May. Therefore, it introduces this amount for the second consecutive month. OPEC has the objective of bringing 2.2Mbd to market and, if this increase is maintained, it would achieve its objective in September this year, compared to July 2026, as predicted in April. As a…


OPEC post mortem

OPEC cuts global oil demand estimate and now forecasts growth of 1.3 Mbd in 2025 and 1.28 in 2026

Bankinter | OPEC cut its estimate for global oil demand. It justified its decision on the impact on the economy of tariffs and the information received in Q1. They estimate that demand will increase by 1.3 mbd in 2025 and 1.28 mbd in 2026, in both cases a reduction of 0.150 mbd compared to the previous estimate. This increase represents about 1.2% of global supply each year. In parallel, it…