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CRE

World economy 8th April 2021

U.S. | Commercial Real Estate After Covid – Crisis And Reinvention, Business As Usual, Or Full Steam Ahead?

Filip Blazheski (BBVA Research) | The U.S. is slowly exiting the Covid induced recession and is on track to post the highest rate of growth in almost 40 years. The economic expansion will be driven by effective vaccination, the reopening of the economy, strong job creation, elevated savings, pent-up demand, massive fiscal support, and accommodative financial conditions. The commercial real estate (CRE) industry will benefit greatly from these conditions, which will help drive down vacancies and support rent growth (Non-financial businesses and nonprofits own close to $32tn of real estate assets, equivalent to close to 39% of all assets owned by these sectors of the economy).

Indonesiaok

World economy 7th April 2021

Indonesia | A rebound Of More Than 4% Expected In 2021

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | In 2020 Indonesia’s GDP shrank 2.1%, a rather small contraction compared to many other countries. This is partly due to the fact that the economy is rather closed (exports account for just about 20% of GDP, which makes Indonesia less susceptible to global trade downturns than some other Southeast Asian countries). Imports (down 14%) decreased much more sharply than exports (down 6%), while the economic performance was also sustained by higher government consumption. In 2021 the economy is forecast to rebound by 4.7%, contingent on the gradual easing of mobility restrictions and an effective vaccine rollout. While the recent spike of coronavirus cases and reinstated restrictions had a negative impact on the recovery in early 2021, the prioritization of vaccinating people of working age first could accelerate the rebound of economic activity over the course of the year.

spain business network

World economy 6th April 2021

Global Corporate Insolvencies Are Expected To Increase By 26% In 2021

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The widely anticipated rise of business insolvencies did not occur in 2020. Global insolvencies are estimated to have declined by 14% in 2020. This is likely to be followed by a 26% rise of insolvencies in 2021. The increase is expected to take place in all major regions and countries, except Turkey. This upward trend is not surprising, as we expect that the temporary measures that kept insolvencies unusually low in 2020 (insolvency law amendments, fiscal support) are gradually phased out in 2021. The level of bankruptcies at the end of 2021 will be higher in virtually all markets than it was in 2019.

India enters the era of Sanatan socialism

In the World, World economy 4th April 2021

India Could Be Poised For A Promising Future

Anirundha Dutta and Brad Freer (Capital Group) | After a slowdown in 2019 and a harsh lockdown in 2020, India may be poised to regain its place among the fastest-growing emerging markets. From e-commerce to banks to real estate, we look at some of the key sectors that could drive the recovery, and where the opportunities may lie for equity investors.

china lantern

In the World, World economy 3rd April 2021

China’s ESG trailblazers

Aberdeen Standard Investments| There There’s growing appreciation among Chinese companies of the value that ESG policies can bring. Here we outline five firms setting the standards for domestic peers to follow. As a global investor, we carry out environment, social and governance (ESG) analysis when we research companies for two reasons: (1) not to lose money; (2) to make money. We believe selecting firms with strong ESG standards improves our chance of avoiding loss-making corporate failures and scandals.

climate deal

In the World, World economy 2nd April 2021

The Missing Pieces to Avoid a Climate Disaster

Felix Haas | Partially through his role with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates came to learn more about the causes and effects of climate change, which was contributing to and exacerbating many of the problems he and his wife were looking to remedy. In his latest book, Bill Gates has done what many political leaders have not: clearly defined and communicated a roadmap that leads us to a net-zero carbon future.

Erdogan's referendum victory

In the World, World economy 30th March 2021

Turkey – Recession Avoided, But Lira Volatility And High Inflation Remain Issues

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The government and the Central Bank returned to more orthodox economic policies in H2 of 2020. Between September and December 2020 the Central Bank tightened the benchmark interest rate several times, by 875 basis points in total, to 17%. Despite this hike, inflation remains stubbornly high (15.6% in February 2021), and is expected to only gradually decrease in the coming months, due to persistent expectations of high inflation and ongoing price pressure triggered by a weak lira exchange rate. In mid-March 2021, the benchmark interest rate was raised again, by 200 basis points, to 19%. However, President Erdogan dismissed the governor of the Central Bank immediately after – the third dismissal of a governor in less than two years.

retro party

In the World, World economy 30th March 2021

The Market Is Hungry For IPOs Here And There

In Europe as well as in the US and Asia, IPO activity is picking up again after the 2020 shortage. We review below the most important expected listings throughout the year, which are coming to brighten up the markets. Specifically, the London Stock Exchange is planning the debut, in the next few days, of the fast food delivery company Deliveroo, in what will be the largest IPO in the last decade.

suez

In the World, World economy 27th March 2021

Suez Canal Container Ship Accident Is A Worst-Case Scenario For Global Trade

Rory Hopcraft, Kevin Jones and Kimberly Tam via The Conversation | It’s estimated that 90% of the world’s trade is transported by sea. As consumers, we rarely give much thought to how the things we buy make their way across the planet and into our homes. That is, until an incident like the recent grounding of a huge container ship, the Ever Given, in the Suez Canal exposes the weaknesses in this global system.