Julius Baer | The narrative of the oil market story is changing. The mood brightens as fears about an overflowing oil market calm and hopes about a swifter-than-expected demand rebound grow. This sentiment factor likely continues to fuel the oil price bounce in the very near term, amplified by investors chasing the market bottom. We stick to our Constructive view and long position in nearby futures contracts.
Markus Allenspach, Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer | At this stage, the corporate bond market needs support from the Federal Reserve to digest the negative news flow, such as the net tightening of lending standards for commercial and industrial loans in the senior loan officers’ survey published yesterday or the numerous cyclical data showing the depth of the contraction in the current quarter.
Following last week’s announcements and counter notifications, Gilead is the first company to receive marketing authorization for an anti-COVID-19 drug. This is valid for the U.S. Europe has not made any announcement.
Singular Bank | According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), governments have so far adopted expansionary fiscal policy measures worth $8.5 trillion (9.8% of world GDP in 2019). These are aimed at addressing the socio-economic consequences of the Covid-19 crisis, in a context of global recession.
Jorge Guira via The Conversation |How much US shale oil is worth saving in these straitened circumstances is key. Some estimate as many as 70% of firms will go out of business overall, with some never coming back until oil stabilises above US$50. Others may be taken over by companies prepared to wait for higher prices.
Mark Shirreff Matthews (Head Research Asia, Julius Baer)| We remain Overweight on China. Of the major world economies, it will be the least impacted by the coronavirus. It is impacted nonetheless, but China’s economies of scale, and financial and technological resources, mean it can develop “new infrastructure” even more than it had previously planned to. Our recommendation for long-term investors is to be positioned in that space, and all its ancillaries, while in the short-term, “old infrastructure” (like cement and construction equipment) will also receive a boost.
Transportation has been severely impacted by the implementation of widespread travel restrictions. These restrictions have resulted in a 30 pct drop in global air traffic and an around 40% decline in road traffic. Firms that survive the “high oil saturation” could benefit once demand recovers and supply has been reduced.
Konstantin Veit, PIMCO, Senior Portfolio Manager European Rates Desk | The ECB meets on Thursday, and while we believe the Governing Council will strongly reiterate its readiness to do whatever it takes we don’t think any far reaching monetary policy decision will be taken at the April meeting. There is a chance for the ECB to clarify the treatment of “fallen angels” within the various asset purchase programs, whereby we expect grandfathering in line with the recent changes to the collateral eligibility framework to make head against pro-cyclicality.
Union Bancaire Priveé (UBP) | Fixed-income frontier markets have seen significant growth in both importance and liquidity over the past decade. While still mainly thought of as part of global EM investments, frontier markets have “grown up” and deserve to be considered separately.
There has been a setback in the progress of a treatment to cure Covid-19. It was learned that remdesivir (Gilead’s antiviral) had not shown sufficient clinical improvement in the first clinical trial and even had important side effects. According to the company, these conclusions are associated with the trial that had to be stopped in China due to a lack of patients.