Esty Dwek (Natixis)| “Markets in general just be really happy with Biden’s lead because it’s looking less and less likely that you’re going to have a contested election which means that by November 4th, we probably know who the next president is going to be, and if it is this Democratic sweep, then we also know there’s going to be a lotof fiscal spending in 2021.”
Romain Boscher (Fidelity International) | Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is famed for describing booming markets during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s as “irrational exuberance”. A generation later, this concept is back with a twist, and, as it happens, fuelled by the US central bank itself.
Daniel Wagner | More than 600 M Chinese already use Alibaba’s Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat Pay to pay for much of what they purchase. Both companies control approximately 90% of China’s mobile payments market, which totaled some $17 trillion in 2019. The Chinese government understands that, via Blockchain, the issuance of its own cryptocurrency is an excellent way to track and record the movement of payments, goods and people: the unsexily named Digital Currency/Electronic Payments (DCEP).
Agricultural and livestock commodities generally had another good month, but some stood out more so than others. Lean hogs made strong gains of 32.1% last month leading the group by a wide margin and entering positive territory year-to-date. In 2019, African Swine Fever in China had cut the country’s pork production by 21.3%, and a further 19% loss in production happened in the first 6 months of 2020 (on a year-on-year basis). As a result, there has been a rapid rise in pork imports notably from the US and Spain.
Edmond de Rothschild | As Warren Buffet likes to say, “You never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out. The exogenous shocks generated by the crises throw a harsh light on the real state of the market, and the excessive risks taken by investors are evident. The sub-prime mortgage and sovereign debt crises were good examples of this phenomenon. But while the financial shock of 2008 had an immediate impact on mergers and acquisitions and led to a collapse in valuations, what can we say about the effects of the coronavirus crisis?
Demographics and labour-market inclusion are increasingly important determinants of growth in advanced economies where productivity is in structural decline, but the impact is highly uneven. Italy and Japan are particularly vulnerable to below-par growth. Scope Ratings has examined the impact of demographic trends on long-term economic growth in major economies, assuming productivity growth and employment rates remain constant.
Getting 65 heads of state to agree to anything is remarkable. But when the topic is “meaningful action” on biodiversity, the “Leaders’ Pledge for Nature” is a big deal. This week, the UN held a virtual biodiversity summit, aiming to reach a new agreement when the “UN Convention on Biological Diversity” convenes in China in May 2021. DWS talks about the economic consequences of biodiversity loss and the role of financial regulators.
The symbolism of President Trump testing positive for coronavirus will not be lost on market participants and economists. Many things – from US-China relations, post-election tax policy, the US’s relationship with global institutions, trade, climate change progress, social cohesion in the US –depend on how a 74-year old man reacts to getting a virus that has claimed over a million lives globally this year
The Australian government this week announced an investment in developing its blockchain industry as part of a wider digital expansion package. Unveiling its $574m Digital Business Plan that includes seven-figure grants for distributed ledger technology initiatives, Prime Minister Scott Morrison earmarked a substantial investment in blockchain.
According to Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, 90% of governments’ attempts to reflate their economies have ultimately been successful over the past 200 years. In other words, after a few years of monetised deficits, trials and errors by policymakers, inflation will eventually rise.