By Julia Pastor, in Madrid | After so many fruitless meetings, conversations and rounds nobody expected that the European leaders would be able to reach a more than reasonable agreement for Europe, that tough Germany would relax its position towards its Southern partners, and Spain and Italy would resist before the steam engine of the euro zone. But it happened. Banks will be recapitalised directly with the European Stability Mechanism…
By Nuño Rodrigo | www.cincodias.es | While our European leaders battle with a crisis seemingly impossible to be resolved, while euro zone third and the fourth economies feel threatened by the danger of being rescued because they cannot afford to access the markets, and while for all of these reasons the world approaches a crisis relapse, the guardian of austerity secrets and price stability wakes up every day with a sack of almost…
By Luis Martí, in Madrid | Amid the recent flurry of proposals for restructuring of the euro zone and opinions on its decomposition, seasoned with all sorts of half truths, two reports –one of the European Commission, by order of Parliament, and one of the Council of Economic Experts which advises the German government– have seriously dealt with the viability of Eurobond-based-solutions. The Commission's report was published late 2011 as a…
By Carlos Díaz Guell, in Madrid | Spain, its public debt as much as its equity markets remain a paradise for investors on short positions who bet demand will go down, while investors interested in the long term just abandon the country because of the lack of reasonable expectations. They are not necessarily evil speculators but simply professionals representing many investors who seek higher returns to their capital and now Spain…
MADRID | Barclays Capital made a realistic yet not Armageddon-like exercise in which the Spanish banking sector would need a recapitalisation equivalent to 6 percent of the country’s GDP, plus an additional 5.4 percent of GDP as an extra-safety calculation. Its analysts threw in 0.9 percent of GDP in Greek liabilities, and 3.5 percent of GDP in administrations’ accumulated debt payments. The scenario considered included yields on 10-year bonds of…
LONDON | The worsening of Spain’s debt risk grades will have grave implications, whether market participants believe the situation in which the country’s public finances are is reversible or not. Portfolio manager at Skandia Investment Group’s fixed income funds and researcher, Anthony Gillham distrusts talk of priced-in negative events. Although last Friday’s announcement by Standard and Poors that Spain is to be downgraded by two notches from A to BBB+ was…
By LaCaixa Research Team, in Barcelona | In the years prior to the recession that started in the last decade, in many countries the gradually increasing debt of the private sector allowed for much more intensive economic growth than would have been seen without it. The abrupt appearance of the crisis frustrated this expansion and revealed an excessive level of debt. This debt is now a heavy burden that can counteract…
MADRID | The German Treasury placed Wednesday €2.4 billion in 30-year bunds with an average return of 2.41%, down from 2.62% in the previous auction. The bid to cover dropped to 1.1 times from 2.1 times. Berlin admitted that demand had been lower than expected, and the total sale volume planned had been left uncovered. In a note to investors, Citigroup in Spain commented on the German explanations and made an interested, interesting comparison: “This reflects a context of volatility and uncertainty, but more importantly, the…
By Carlos Díaz Guell, in Madrid | The crisis has led to a rapid accumulation of public debt as a result of the deterioration in economic growth, the functioning of automatic stabilisers, fiscal incentives and public capital support for the banking sector. In the euro zone, the European Central Bank estimates that the ratio of public debt as a percentage of GDP has risen 22 points since 2007 so it reached…
NEW YORK | A big amount of pain in the Spanish economy could have been avoided. But the Germany authorities chose not to. This is pretty much the line of thought that The New York Times has been sharing with its public for months. So far, the excessive “German-led mismanagement of the euro-zone crisis” has been the focus of as many op-eds as the war in Afghanistan or the US healthcare…