elections

france economy

Relaxed France, But With An Eye To Debt Market And Structural Reforms

French elections will likely serve as a way to take the populism temperature, as well as being the next step towards de-globalisation. As the Dutch general elections showed, the populist drive may prove to be not as strong as anticipated by the polls. But most of the media is presenting the French elections in this way. Furthermore, it has to be considered the fact that the pollsters underestimated the force of populism last year in the UK.


Elections in Netherlands

Netherlands’ Elections: Not much danger for the EU

Today the Dutch will hold parliamentary elections. The importance of the results in Holland has not so much to do with the eurosceptics’ access to the country’s government being blocked by the rest of the parties. But rather its interpretation as being key to the upcoming French elections, something which many analysts believe is erroneous.


France's risk premium

France’s Risk Premium Is Taking Off Ahead Of Presidential Elections

There is an increasing risk in French politics that Marine Le Pen will be victorious, which is fuelling a rise in the differential between the German and French bond to a four-year maximum. The markets are increasingly more sensitive, and it’s not just France. There are no political candidates left who do not pose a threat.


Next Italy elections

Early Elections Not Likely In Italy

AXA IM | We believe elections in the coming weeks is quite unlikely, for three reasons. First, all parties except M5S (Five Star Movement) have little interest to go through early elections, as voting intentions polls show that “classic” right and left-wing parties would all lose a substantial number of seats in Parliament to the M5S and the Northern League.



European Union

Who Are The Ones Who Fail, Leaders Or Voters?

Two founding member countries of the European Union are really in a bad way: France and Italy. Both are threatening to turn this giant with feet of clay upside down, when it still doesn’t know how to deal with Brexit or the unknown elements which Trump has in store in “his” new world order.


Trump's victory day

Trump’s Victory: Europe Faces Tough Times

Many take comfort from the prospect of higher inflation and rising interest rates driven by the fiscal stimulus the President-elect Trump promises to deliver. This will push the dollar up, endowing European exports with increased competitiveness. Yet the currency tailwind expectations might prove short lived as current debt levels curb any significant public deficit-led expansion.



Trump victory

John Maynard Trump?

Francesco Saraceno | Trump is not the John Maynard Keynes of 2016. His agenda is, broadly speaking, an agenda of deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, and retreat of the State from the economy. Not to mention the strong chance of a more hawkish Fed in the future. To sum up, Trump is, in the best case scenario a new Reagan.