Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, is the favourite candite to become Brazil’s next president against Fernando Haddad, the nominee of the Workers’ Party. Polls point Bolsonaro is ahead by 11 points. In this context, Brazilian public debt is at 77% at present. This is what analysts at AXA IM say about Brazilian’s “explosive” public debt issue.
On Sunday 7 October, all Brazilians between the ages of 18 and 70 are being called to the polls to elect their next President .”This is an important election because the future administration will have the responsibility to tackle Brazil’s growing fiscal imbalances, and this will require challenging structural reforms”, analysts at AXA IM say.
Luis Gómez Romero via The conversation | Mexico’s next president will be Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor and outspoken critic of the political establishment both in Mexico and the United States. The 64-year-old leftist, who had for months led a crowded presidential field, beat three competitors on July 1 to triumph in his third presidential bid.
Mexicans go to the polls on 1 July. Some 3,400 elected positions are at stake (including the President, deputies senators, and gubernatorial elections), potentially reshaping the country’s political landscape. AXA IM analysts expect that Andrès Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, will be victorious and become the next President and that his coalition Called MORENA) will obtain a small majority in both chambers of the Congress.
Two months after the general elections, Italy continues to be in a political deadlock. In fact,president Mattarella considers new elections in July a possibility if a “truce government” has no majority in Parliament. As negotiations continue, possibly preceded by a transition government, Italian authorities are tasked with passing the budget in the fall and approving a new electoral law that would deliver a clearer winner at the next election.
Vladimir Putin secured an easy victory, and a second consecutive six-year term, in yesterday’s first round of presidential elections. With 99% of the votes counted, he has received 77% of votes, which will extend his 18-year in power until 2024. Putin’s re-election means stability in the corporate sector, a favourable outcome for bond investors.
Europe, where everyone is against everbody else. The victory in Italy of the populist Five Star Movement and Lega has shattered into a million pieces the slight possibilities of having a more united Europe, or a more federal one, or whatever you want to call it.
Sunday’s Italian election have left behind a complex scenario and a lot of attention will be on the negotiations to form a government. In fact, Matteo Renzi has been the first domino to fall as he has decided to resign after his party’s negative results. But in Germany a political future is shaping up, after the Socialdemocrat Party gave the green light to the agreement with the conservatives of Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel.
Russia’s economy of 140 million people has managed to survive inflation (2.5%) and the fall in the rouble, although it needs to make the energy miracle last one decade more to offset sanctions.
Manuela Andreoni | As Brazil braces for its most important election in decades, hopes of stabilization are dwindling. The country is slowly stepping out of an almost three year-long recession, but uncertainty over what will happen at the ballot boxes later on this year is pushing debate on how to resume growth into a distant future.