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Janet Yellen testimony

World economy 28th December 2015

A Free Market in Interest Rates

Keith Weiner via TrumanFactor | Unless you’re living under a rock, you know that we have an administered interest rate. This means that the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve decide what’s good for the little people. Then they impose it on us. In trying to return to freedom, many people wonder why couldn’t we let the market set the interest rate. After all, we don’t have a Corn Control Agency or a Lumber Board (pun intended). So why do we have a Federal Open Market Committee? It’s a very good question.

Investor focus on US Fed

World economy 14th December 2015

The Fed Move May Send Shock Waves

Analysts and markets alike are already discounting a 25 basis points rise in the Fed’s core rates this week. So investors’ reaction will depend largely on Janet Yellen’s message regarding future rate hikes. A vague gradualism no longer matches the kind of unequivocal commitment the markets are waiting for. Anything short of this could fuel general volatility and unrest.

fed decision

World economy 11th December 2015

The Fed’s discourse obliges it to raise rates

In a few days the Fed will meet and, inevitably, will raise interest rates. It is inevitable because it would contradict its discourse if this doesn’t happen. In the short-term it is unlikely to present any problems, because the move is already discounted. But there is something worse: there is the risk that the Fed makes a mistake which it later has to rectify, as has happened in other countries. Sweden is the main example.

janet swearing

World economy 23rd November 2015

Fed: “Just Hike Rates”

Fernando Barciela | The Federal Reserve’s minutes which were released last Wednesday show that a rate hike is firmly on the cards for this December. But almost everybody seems to think that – if it happens – the rate increase probably will be small, a quarter of a percentage point at most. And, also very importantly, the pace of rate increases after that hike will be gradual. Before any further decision about future hikes the Fed will want to study the consequences.

Dollar's fall could damage ECB policy

World economy 20th November 2015

Learning To Live With A Strong Dollar

From July 2014 to date, the dollar has risen by 17% and this increase is one of the reasons why the U.S. economy registered paltry growth of only 2% y-o-y in the third quarter. But the market thinks that the strong dollar is here to stay and it is becoming a factor that US policymakers must consider.

Federal Reserve

World economy 18th November 2015

Fed’s Rate Hike At Risk Of Being Politicised

Fed President Janet Yellen has pointed out very politely that the law to reform the central bank is “a serious mistake.” She believes monetary policy cannot be linked to indicators like in a mathematical formula.

USEquityDerivatives

World economy 10th November 2015

US Outlook 2016: Into the Late Innings

UBS | 81 months and 200% higher, this US Equity and Derivatives’ Bull is the third longest since 1932 and surpasses the average of 138%. While age or return alone does not signal The End, increasing volatility, Fed rate hikes, and an M&A boom in its third year have all preceded past tops.

USeconomyTC

World economy 5th November 2015

Economists and investors disagree over U.S. economy

There is a definite clash between investors and economists over the US economy. According to Intermoney’s Spanish analysts, markets are looking for reasons to take apart the thesis about the country’s resilient activity, arguing that moderate growth is insufficient. Then there are the economic purists, including many Fed members, who are confident the US recovery is sustainable.

Fed chair Janet Yellen

World economy 27th October 2015

The Fed Should Transmit A Message Of Confidence

Better placed observers, such as the Financial Times, bet this week’s FOMC meeting should serve as a test of its members’ mood regarding the planned increase in US rates. Janet Yellen lacks the authority her predecessors commanded and wants to make sure this critical decision garners full support.