Fernando G. Urbaneja | The risk of recession is beginning to be seen in the data: in exports, as the outer circle of defence. If Germany sells less it also buys less; the powerful Spanish car components and machine tool industries are seeing a fall in orders and noting it is the time to cut back and not expand. Winter is coming and the house is not prepared.
Link Securities | German business expectations are at an eight year low. The ZEW surveys elaborated by experts on the current conditions of the economy in August indicated a very pessimistic atmosphere.
CdM | Economic growth in the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to contract in July, and did so at the fastest rate since December 2012, according to the latest PMI index. Germany remained a source of weakness, registering its largest deterioration in 7 years.
Consumer price index rose 0.2% in Germany in June compared to May, while the yoy rate rose 1.6% (1.4% in May). The French National Statistics Institute, Insee, announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in France rose 0.2% in June compared to May, while the interannual rate rose 1.2% (0.9% in May). All figures coincide with analysts´ expectations.
The German auction of 5G frequencies ended this week. Telefonica’s subsidiary in Germany was awarded a total 90MHz, for a cost of 1.425 Bn€, 22% of the total raised by the auction of 6.55 Bn€, higher than the expected 5 Bn€. Telefonica Deutschland was awarded 2 blocks in the 2GHz band and 7 blocks in the 3.6 GHz band. The assignment of the 2 GHz block will happen on 1 January 2021 and the other on 1 January 2026.
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | Germany is its firms. Germany is Deutsche Bank, Bayer, Thyssenkrupp, VW. What German executive Dieter Zetsche said a few weeks ago, that “it is not clear that the brand Mercedes Benz will exist in the future”, symbolises the identity crisis generated by global pressure, digitalisation and the latest technological revolution. Many of the consortia which form part of the German economic identity are between a rock and a hard place. It would be the definitive goodbye to the so-called Germany Ltd.
Link Securities | Telefónica has invested 1.0063 billion euros in the 19 March auction of new radioelectric frequencies in Germany, according to information facilitated by Germany´s Federal Networks Agency, while awaiting official confirmation.
The inflation data for March will be the key publication of this week. With the market discounting a 0.1% drop in the main figure, Ebury analysts believe that a 1% inflation would be enough to drive a modest rebound in the euro from its current position.
One of the candidates to replace Merkel proposed fiscally incentivising investment in stocks, as a complement to the public pension. The idea got little support in a country with a savings rate of 10% but an enormous aversion to risk, where variable income seems reserved for the highest income.
Lidia Conde (Fráncfort) | Achim Wambach has been the president of the European economic think tank ZEW in Mannheim since 2016. He is also president of the antimonopoly commission and the Association for Social Policy. He forms part of National Platform on Electromobility and works in the advisory council of the State of Baden-Württemberg for sustainable economic development.