The non-banking sector in Europe currently accounts for 54% of total assets versus 42% in 2008. But interestingly, it’s in Germany and Spain, amongst the big countries, where banks maintain their weighting in absolute terms and in relation to their products.
There has been something of a political roller-coaster in Europe over the past months, and it appears already that no-one is giving much importance to the upcoming federal elections in Germany. But there are various issues and questions making this election especially important for Germany and the EU.
The elections in Germany are just 3 days away now and all the coalition possibilities are still on the cards. That said, the most likely seem to be Angela Merkel’s CDU&SPD, like now, and CDU&FDF&Greens.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel | Germans are more centrist and optimistic than most Europeans. The French and the Spanish have yet to feel the economic recovery and are more inclined to vote for parties on the far left and the far right. The Italians are even more pessimistic, yet they remain wary of extremes.
The latest survey carried out by the Bundesbank and BaFin (Germany’s Federal Authority for Financial Supervisión) highlighted a matter which is causing great concern for the “European growth driver”: the “ultra low” official interest rates continue to “strongly weigh” on the smaller German banks.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel |It is impossible to appeal to progressive middle-class and nativist working-class voters at the same time. Social democrats across Europe are caught in the middle of a culture war. Ahead of next month’s elections, Germany’s Social Democrats have to pick a side.
Nick Ottens via Atlantic Sentinel |German chancellor Angela Merkel could renew her alliance with the center-left or switch to a pact with either the liberals or Greens.
Analysts at Julius Baer think it is “comforting” to see that the bond market is efficient. In other words, they say that for German bond investors it is basically the same whether they invest in negative- yielding German Bunds or buy US bonds and pay for the hedging of the currency risk.
Suprising as it may be, 18 of the 19 members of the Eurozone saw an increase in GDP in Q1’17 with respect to Q4’16. Spain’s GDP improved by 0.6%; Italy managed to grow (0.2%); Germany and France clocked up a 0.4% rise. Only Greece remained in the red. The unemployment rate in the region has officially fallen to 9.6%…there is growth.
There are those who believe, like Macron, that Germany’s 8.8% trade surplus is damaging the Eurozone economy. “4% could be justified; but not 8%”, says IMF head Christine Lagarde. The problem is not that Germany exports a lot, but that it imports very little.