MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Thursday brought some positive predictions on the Spanish economy from the European Commission, but buoyancy on European markets may be negated by data due from the US later today.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Market fears about Greece eased somewhat on Thursday, with Spanish banks recovering the ground lost earlier in the week. Friday brings new data on unemployment and GDP which may bring further good news for the Spanish economy
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Is Germany living in a crazy world? That’s what many journalists hint at. “The tortoise cycle will continue,” says Johannes Müller, responsible for the management of Deutsche Bank’s large estates. “The interest rates will remain rock-bottom at least until 2016.” This represents an opportunity for the stock exchanges, because the fear of risk is decreasing. “The ECB wants to weaken the Euro with its low interest rates policy, which is also an opportunity to invest in Dollars and real estate.”
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | The headlines on the German media would suggest that we live in a crazy world or on the edge looking into the abyss. The fear of a potential catastrophe due to the anti-crisis policy by Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen has led to many different theories and proposals.
MADRID | The Corner | Germany seems finally willing to boost its domestic demand. Real wages rose by 1.8% in 3Q (3T2014) compared to the same period from 2013, its largest rise in over three years, according to official data. An increase in wages along with penalized savings should result in more consumption.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We see 4 wins for Germany in a backdrop of falling oil prices
1) German equity market is not exposed to Oil & Gas earnings. 2) While our Oil & Gas analysts expect energy capex to fall by 10% (which could hurt a cyclical Germany), the overall fall to European capex is < 3%. Plus capex is already at a 23 year low – can it get much worse? 3) Our economists think lower oil triggers sovereign-based QE given their view it pushes CPI even lower than Tuesday’s 0.3%.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is being negotiated between the European Commission and the United States in Brussels. Once again, Germany, as Europe’s economic and political powerhouse, could have the last word on its contents and approval.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | The Eurozone cannot afford another recession, hence the international and European institutional pressure to force Germany to speed up its economic growth. However, the German economy has grown by only 0.1% in 3Q and, according to the experts, it seems unlikely that it will accelerate in the coming quarters.
MADRID | The Corner | Berlin is sticking to a rigid budgetary policy, prioritizing a 2015 balanced budget instead of growth. And hard liners aren’t just willing to make any move. As German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble defended on Tuesday during a budget debate in Parliament: “We are not in a recession. We are not in an economic crisis,” Schäuble said, “Our economy is almost working at normal capacity.” Germany narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter, growing by 0.1 percent, thanks to a sharp rise in private consumption (0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, the biggest rise in three years) that compensated the lack of investment.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The latest movements within currency markets function as a gauge of the economic momentum in both Europe and the US. The decline of the Euro against the Dollar has increased in the last few days due to poor macroeconomic data in the eurozone, which is in sharp contrast with the vigour shown by the US (who showed growth of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014).