As the global outlook improves, many people ask what’s happened to Larry Summer’s hypothesis of Secular Stagnation, which says there are clear signs that the economic world has been “cooling down” for decades. And currently, everything seems to make us think that the recovery we have on our doorstep is not going to be strong or long-lasting.
Without its own demography and without immigration, it’s impossible for the Trump administration’s forecast for annual US GDP growth of 3.5% over the next years to be met.
Ofelia Marín- Lozano | The productive model of the future should focus on boosting the country’s competitiveness (where education, the family, discipline and the incentive to do a good job are a necessary start). But sectors like construction should also be encouraged to recover their lost protagonism.
The Bank of Spain warns that the Spanish economy is progressing against a backdrop of “high uncertainty” at the start of 2017, along the lines of what happened during most of last year, associated to a large extent with geopolitical events.
The Spanish economy grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2016, although signs of a slowdown are beginning to appear. Almost all the external factors which had boosted GDP growth latterly (the so-called tail winds) may disappear over this year.
Fernando Rodríguez | The outlook for economic growth in Spain continues to be good and domestic small and midcap stocks should reflect this. Above all, the cyclicals – particularly industrials – and consumer stocks. Barón de Ley, Miquel y Costas, Cie Automotive, CAF and Fluidra are some of the top stock picks.
The January update of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook”, published in October, confirms that Spain will recover this year all the GDP growth lost during the economic crisis, exceeding in 2017 for the first time the volume of growth in 2008.
BoAML | The ECB has closed many doors in December. The 2015-16 strategy of monetary policy covering for fiscal loosening to facilitate structural reform has changed.We are back to national governments having to navigate through strained fiscal trajectories, leaving very little room for mistakes. Potential growth prospects are not great, not only in the periphery.
Households have improved their debt levels, but the state has compensated for this. So Spain remains the most indebted country in the world, with public and private debt representing 300% of GDP. Another reason which helps explain the fact that investment is still not taking off. But what are very popular are “stock market games”.
The Gallegan fashion retailer never fails to amaze us with its growth capacity, which is also healthy. As of now, it is not just the leading Spanish company in stock market terms but also one of the three or four in the Eurostoxx 50 worth over 100 billion euros.