Morgan Stanley | Rob Pulleyn reviews his sector coverage as a preview of results, with expectations of continued outperformance over Europe (up 14% YTD and 21% from lows). However, the market maintains an underweight position on the sector and the valuation is still at a discount of -10% in PE versus a long-term premium of 1-2%. Rob maintains his preference for large cap integrated and regulated companies, offering the greatest…
Morgan Stanley| The SX6P has had the worst start in relative terms since 1986 (-10% versus SXXP YTD) as a result of the fall in energy prices. Last week our strategy team published an update of the European sector positioning tracker and one of the conclusions is that Utilities is one of the sectors with the lowest positioning by both European and International Funds. ENEL, National Grid and Iberdrola are…
Morgan Stanley | The details of REPowerEU are positive for the sector. In this note we analyse the changes to the new plan (the first one was 8 March). The objectives are more ambitious for the capacity and penetration in renewables, particularly in solar. Objectives have also been heightened for energy efficiency and an increase in carbon credits. For the time being it is more a political plan of intentions…
Spain’s reversal of plans for a windfall tax on power providers leaves utilities facing modest extra payments rather than multibillion-euro tax bills. Iberdrola SA, one of Spain’s biggest utilities, is a case in point, says Scope Ratings. Enel SpA, the Italian parent of Spanish utility Endesa, has provided less information though it is sticking to an EBITDA forecast for its Spanish activities issued before the energy levy was announced.
Banco Sabadell | The Ministry of Transition has begun the round of negotiations with the electricity companies (last week it was the turn of Endesa, Acciona and EDP and today it will be the turn of Naturgy and Iberdrola). The idea is to try to reach an agreement before next Thursday, which is when the gas Royal Decree will be ratified. Among the sector’s proposals, Iberdrola proposes supplying nuclear production at a closed long-term price to small consumers with less than 10 kW of power under the regulated tariff. A bilateral contract, in line with what France does, where the price would cover its fixed and variable costs and possible life extensions (c. 60 euros/MWh). This proposal eliminates the risk for power plants and would leave hydro and renewables free to market. The risk is that there would be a migration from the free to the regulated domestic segment (now 38%).
On Tuesday, the Ministry for Ecological Transition presented a draft bill to the Council of Ministers to put an end to windfall profits, i.e. to put an end to the over-remuneration of nuclear and hydroelectric power in order to reduce consumers’ electricity bills, which have risen considerably, among other things, due to the increase in CO2 emissions.According to government sources, the proposal would respect the European regulatory framework (where there should be no discrimination by technology) and would be similar to that existing between 2006/2009, with the reduction of a part of the CO2 “dividend” to non-emitting plants prior to 2005 that sell energy on the market.
Iberdrola is the Spanish energy brand with the highest growth in brand value, with a 1.4% increase in brand value and remains the most valuable Spanish energy company in the world according to Brand Finance, the intangible valuation consultancy. Furthermore, Iberdrola is the only Spanish company in the sector’s top 10. It ranks 6th in the table and has a value of €4.38 Bn. The ranking is headed by China’s State Grid with €46.9 Bn.
Banco Sabadell | A federal court in Mexico has temporarily suspended the government’s legislative reform for the electricity sector. The reform would prioritise energy production by state-owned company CFE when it comes to feeding energy into the grid. In turn this would harm private renewable generation firms which, by producing more cheaply, would enter the market earlier. The impact of for the Spanish firms with presence in the Mexican market, Iberdrola, Acciona and Naturgy is limited.
José Benito de Vega | Naturgy has enjoyed a very positive stockmarket evolution since the beginning of 2018, in which period its value has increased 43% compared to an 8% fall of the IBEX35. There are various factors behind his positive performance compared to the index, which was accentuated following the presentation of its Strategic Plan in June 2018. However, after the positive evolution of its shares, it is trading with elevated multiples and at a premium to the European sector which, in our opinion, does not take account of the regulatory risk.
Renta4 | According to media reports, the Spanish electricity company is in preliminary conversations with Neoelectra and SDCL to sell its electricty co-generation business in Spain, where it has 19 plants producing 368 MW.