Combining machines and humans in investing- An analyst from the (near?) future
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The machine will be better at seeing patterns. However, the human will be better at understanding change.
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Orange Revenue improving, Spain the weak spot (again)
BOfAML | Orange’s Q3 results were broadly in line with expectations with revenues 0.5% ahead, (+0.8% in Q3 vs +0.4% in Q2) and EBITDAaL +0.2%, in line with consensus expectations. The mix was somewhat weak however with France and Spain delivering slightly below
The Fed is once again data-dependent
Christian Scherrmann (DWS) | As has been widely anticipated, the Fed is again lowering key rates by 25 basis points – the third step in the current cycle. Judging from the obligatory statement, it seems quite plausible the Fed might be done with cutting for a while. From now on, its main focus seems to be on monitoring the U.S. economy, rather than, say, on pondering whether the current interest rate level appears appropriate, given the current situation. In short, the Fed is once again data-dependent.
Why have mortgages fallen in Spain?
The new Mortgage Credit Law in large part explains the fall in housing mortgages in Spain. According to official data, the number of mortgages has fallen 29.9% yoy, which contrasts with the 4.9% increase in the first 8 months of the year. Loaned capital has also fallen by a similar amount of 26.4% (+6% in the year).
Indra tests its managed lanes in the US with a contract for 70M$
The Spanish technology company Indra is closing to winning a contract in the US to install a managed lanes system in a motorway in Virginia.
Is the US losing the artificial intelligence arms race?
James Johnson (The Conversation) | The U.S. government, long a proponent of advancing technology for military purposes, sees artificial intelligence as key to the next generation of fighting tools.
Linking ACS with peers like Vinci will favor the Spanish company
Alphavalue | A key of ACS is the management’s ability to copy Vinci’s business model (add, target € 114) in the Anglo-Saxon world, thanks to the expected complementarity between Hochtief (German construction company) and Abertis (highway concessionaire).
Hunting for the unicorn
Joan Bonet Majó (Banca March) | In recent years, the unicorns have not ceased to multiply. Their growth is so strong that it could be said that they are reproducing like rabbits. According to CB Insights, currently there are 403 unicorns with a joint value of 1.3 trillion dollars, similar to the GDP of countries like Spain.
Euro: Cannot break free
BOfAML | We still see EURUSD somewhat weaker by the end of the year, to 1.08, before appreciating again next year to 1.15, in a gradual move towards our equilibrium estimate of 1.20-1.25. However, our more optimistic forecasts for next year assume that US-China and US-EU trade tensions ease. We also assume a Brexit deal, the likelihood of which have recently improved.
Berlin strikes a deal to freeze rents
Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | Back in June, we argued that financial repression, which consists of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors, can take several forms and is not confined to negative yields. At that time, the city of Berlin launched an initiative to freeze rents for five years from 1 January 2020. The governing coalition now struck a deal that looks fairly similar to the initial draft.