The decline in world trade, particularly in Asia, highlights an important contradiction in the markets: asset prices are rising, but growth estimates and earnings forecasts for 2016 are being revised downwards.
Household debt another reason to prefer SEK shorts In September we argued that the krona should weaken due to strong and persistent disinflationary pressures imported from abroad. Another factor that probably does not get the attention it deserves is the leverage of Swedis households. In the medium to long term, we think this will keep the krona under pressure. The Riksbank will have to tread carefully, even in a strong…
Fernando Barciela | The Federal Reserve’s minutes which were released last Wednesday show that a rate hike is firmly on the cards for this December. But almost everybody seems to think that – if it happens – the rate increase probably will be small, a quarter of a percentage point at most. And, also very importantly, the pace of rate increases after that hike will be gradual. Before any further decision about future hikes the Fed will want to study the consequences.
Peter Isackson | The horrendous and carefully synchronized attacks in Paris on November 13 have provided a new occasion to fill the airwaves and pages of the press with the familiar themes, memes and sentiments our skilled rhetoricians in politics and the media are so good at trotting out.
Alberto Forchielli via Caixin| The system in place in Europe after Napoleon’s downfall created a common purpose, something that is sorely lacking in today’s world
BARCLAYS | The bank’s overall assessment of the economy was unchanged (‘recover moderately’), while it expects inflation expectations “to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective,” adding that “some indicators have shown relatively weak developments.’
James Alexander via Historinhas | The inflation doom-mongers are out again with US Consumer Price Index numbers and, to a lesser extent, in the UK where, headline inflation really is just too low for most hawks to shout too much about steady core inflation.
The chairman of CLH, Spain’s leading petroleum products’ storage and transport company, recently made the comment that the demand for fuels “is increasing as never before,” around 4-5%, compared with a decline of a similar amount during the crisis years.
Ofelia Marín- Lozano | The close to 40% drop in raw material prices over the last year has been taken as an unmistakable sign of a strong slowdown in China, auguring a very negative outlook for producing countries. But the market has seen that the alarm bells sounded over China have been clearly unfounded, as major global companies like Apple are still seeing high levels of sales in the country.
Barclays | Both ECB’s Vice President Constancio and Chief Economist Praet warned of a potential macroeconomic impact of Paris terrorist attacks last Friday although the noted that these types of events generally have a transitory effect on the economy.