A.J.A | Last Friday 27, after a cabinet meeting, the Spanish government issued a decree prohibiting companies from firing employees by “taking advantage of the coronavirus” (sic). with absurdities such as this one, it ensures that the recovery will not be in a V shape, or even in a U shape, but that the country will get into a prolonged crisis in L.
Half of the line of guarantees’ first tranche, amounting to 20 billion euros, will be earmarked for SMEs and the self-employed, guaranteeing 80% of new loans and financing renewals. The remainder will go to medium and large companies. In the latter’s case, up to 70% of new loans will be guaranteed, while loans’ renewals will be guaranteed up to 60%. Once the resources are used up, the government will automatically activate new tranches of credit lines up to the maximum target of 100 billion euros.
The coronavirus crisis could cost Spain 3.9% of GDP, in a mild scenario. But if the current containment and crisis measures are extended for three months, GDP could fall by up to 6 percentage points. And if they continue until summer, by almost 10. This is one of the conclusions of the report presented yesterday by Nuno Fernandes, Professor of Finance at IESE Business School.
Over the last two decades, the Spanish health sector’s percentage of the country’s total employment has grown considerably. In 2000, the number of people working in the health sector barely represented 4% of all those employed in Spain. In 2019, however, this proportion was close to 5.7%. This data is from the Active Population Survey (EPA), which is picked up in a Funcas document. It reminds us that, despite the fact Spain’s health situation is critical at the moment, the country has never had as many people working in the sector as it does today.
S&P has revised Spain 2020 GDP downwards from +1.5% to -1.8%, rebounding +3.1% in 2021, +1.4% in 2022 and +1.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates for the unemployment rate are 14.6% in 2020 compared to 14.1% in 2019, 15.6% in 2021, 15.2% in 2022 and 15.0% in 2023. For its part, Moody’s does not expand on this information; it merely confirms its ratings and outlook.
The rapid spread of the coronavirus in Spain is sparking a decline in activity for many companies, beyond just the shops, bars and restaurants which have been forced to close. Some giants such as SEAT, Volkswagen or Burger King have announced that they are going to launch temporary layoffs (so called ERTEs) to deal with the situation. The Spanish government calculates that the extraordinary measures already activated could affect up to one million jobs.
Spain had its first coronavirus death on February 13th, in Valencia. But the Spanish Ministry of Health did not know about it, or did not make it public – and we do not know what is worse – until three weeks later, March 3. This first data reflects well how this pandemic is being managed in Spain.
The current scenario forces stimuli and, at last, the Eurogroup is beginning to propose some important measures such as the agreement to promote fiscal measures throughout the Eurozone worth 1% of GDP in 2020, or guarantee schemes and tax deferral equivalent to 10% of GDP. Furthermore, Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, announced a much more ambitious plan, mobilising up to 200 Bn euros, of which 83 Bn euros will be private, mainly from banks. The shock plan is equivalent to 20% of the national wealth (11.7% taking into account the State’s share).
State of emergency, general quarantine, these measures, which should have been taken in Madrid a week ago, are now imposed on Spain to avoid repeating mistakes. Sánchez at the controls has finally got it right. It will not be easy. “Heroism is also about washing your hands,” don’t forget. Courage!
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | We don’t really know where we stand with regard to this crisis, but it’s clear what we should do. The EU must act decisively to avoid an economic disaster that would affect all its members. Only God knows what will come next.