Despite the fact that many of the banking sector ratios are improving, the Bank of Spain in its November bulletin has once again called on the industry to adjust its business model and even adapt its corporate strategy to a demanding economic and regulatory environment.
The day after Draghi warned about greater than expected weakness in Eurozone inflation data, Spain’s final October inflation number has been published, confirming the -0.7% year-on-year preliminary figure. But despite the fact inflation remains in negative territory, the CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month.
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) announced yesterday that it has removed BBVA from its list of 30 global systemically important banks. Spain’s second biggest entity has been included in this list since 2012. But the lender will still be subject to other loss-absorbing capacity obligations, such as Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities (MREL).
Popular chairman Angel Ron’s proposal to raise salaries in line with productivity in order to speed up the consolidation of economic growth is clearly at least worthy of a discussion. In the short-term, it would have repercussions not only on corporate profits but also on improving confidence, the recovery in consumption, the increase in production and job creation.
Foreign investors are pumping more money into buying, building or converting hotels in Spain, as they cash in on the positive trend in two key industries: real estate and tourism.
Experts are forecasting an unemployment rate of 15% in 2018, when it is estimated that Spain’s economy will have reached its GDP growth potential, so that figure could represent its structural jobless rate. This decline in the unemployment rate, the starting point of which was 26% at the lowest point in the economic cycle, is substantial. But it will still be high compared with other eurozone countries.
Car production in Spain rose 26.7% in September, as the country’s automotive plants assembled about 9,000 vehicles per day, their highest production level since April 2008.
Spain’s medium-sized banks are prime targets in the next expected round of sector consolidation. But these lenders need to improve their P&L accounts ahead of further integration.
Fernando Barciela | Passos Coelho won the elections in Portugal with 38.6% of the vote, but lost his majority in parliament. Even though he has been tasked with forming a new government, Portuguese left parties have adopted a pragmatic approach which makes an agreement between the Socialist Party, Communist Party and Bloco de Esquerda increasingly likely. For the time being, they have already appointed Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, a socialist, as the President of the parliament.
Last week the Spanish banking sector began its third quarter results presentations, but analysts are going one step further and are already looking for indications ahead of 2016. The outlook is not wholly favourable if we take into account the factors affecting it on the downside.