Multiple rounds of quantitative easing and liquidity injections resulted in more than a four-fold increase in the aggregate G4 central banks balance sheet in the last decade. This experience has many worried about a “quantitative tightening ” trade. Here analysts at BoAML argue that those worries can be put off for another day.
The message unanimously churned out by politicians, central bankers, and ‘mainstream’ economists is that central banks are there for the ‘greater good’. However, accoding to a market report from Degussa, “unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth.”
J.L.M. Campuzano | The ECB calculates that its extreme expansionary monetary measures have contributed nearly two points to European growth since 2014. The question now is whether the benefits of maintaining them outweigh the risks of prolonging excessively lax financial conditions too long.
J.P. Marin-Arrese | When it comes to sending messages to the market, Jerome Powell is proving less conventional and more straightforward than Mario Draghi. The former added fuel to the fire by delivering a forthright appraisal of the strength of US growth, the latter announced the ECB would scrap the QE scheme by the end of the year.
The biggest economic threat today is not the interest rate, nor the exchange rates, nor the possible trade war fuelled by Trump: it’s the debt accumulated by countries across the world. This has increased 12% of GDP since the crisis, totalling 225% of global GDP. Starting with China, followed by Europe and ending up with the US, the threat from the current and future debt is terrifying.
The height of the paradox, or the oxymoron, is that Venezuela has such high inflation that bank notes have become one of the most sought after ítems! Added to this is the fact that Maduro has decided to round up the value of the bank notes, knocking off zeros.
We need to be aware of the existence of regulations over and above the well-known Taylor Law, starting with this regulation adjusted to establishing a downward limit on rates of 0%, which is very important in the US Fed’s case.
By issuing digital money, the central banks could provide an answer for the substitution of jobs by robotization, or solve the problem of excessive public debt, easing the increasing pressure on finances from burdens like pensions.
There’s an idea circulating amongst the central banks or, more accurately, amongst pressure groups in the central banks. The crux of this idea is: “the central banks should normalise interest rates”.
As long as there is no perfect equivalence between supply and demand, inflation will form part of our system, according to Robeco.