What Will Be Left of Great Britain?
Stephen Chan (Fair Observer) | This is a historic moment for what is now the United Kingdom. What the country will look like after 10 years is up for debate.
In the World
Grey Swans for 2020
A new flat tax in the US, the decline of the US dollar due to the greater influence of Asian economies… All these highly improbable but high economic impact events are called grey swans. The Spanish business association Círculo de Empresarios has put together some of the most relevant for 2020.
In Depth: Whither the Chinese Economy in 2020?
Yu Hairong, Wu Hongyuran, Huo Kan, Cheng Siwei and Han Wei (Caixin) | Where is the Chinese economy heading and how will policymakers react? As the new year approaches, debate over the outlook of the world’s second-largest economy is heating up, and all eyes are searching for clues to the next policy steps.
YearEnd Tailwind: DeEscalating Policy Risks
Libby Cantrill (Pimco) | We’ve seen a significant reduction or even outright elimination of many of the downside risks that have created clouds of uncertainty both in Washington and in financial markets over the past several months. The most substantial clarifying event was the announcement of the Phase 1 deal between China and the U.S.
The stock market boom could last until 1Q2020
Intermoney | The week that begins will be shorter than usual to be marked by the Christmas holidays. Thus, European stock markets will open only on Monday 23, Tuesday 24 half session and Friday December 27, while Wall Street stock markets will open on Monday 23, Tuesday 24 (half session), Thursday 26 and Friday, December 27. We believe this week could be quite positive for Western markets, as the picture has been clarified enough in the two sources of uncertainty that have been determining in the evolution of the markets, i) the commercial conflict, and ii) Brexit.
The Veiled Face of Data Colonialism Exposed
Peter Isackson (Fair Observer) | Some 60 or 70 years after achieving political independence, the “global south” must liberate itself from the latest form of colonization.
US economy: Record profits, zombie companies and other consequences of the monetary easing
DWS | The USA is a divided nation. This idea has been repeated for some time in reference to American politics and society. However, since the end of the financial crisis, this division is increasingly palpable also in the economic sphere.
Piketty: “We are reinforcing social inequality with public money”
Ana Fuentes | The inequality trap lies in the fact that, thanks to globalization and the market economy, inequality between countries has been reduced in recent decades, but nevertheless it has increased internally in most of them. For Thomas Piketty, one of the most respected economists by the European left, the first thing is to recognize that inequality is not economic or technological, but essentially political. There is much talk of meritocracy and equal opportunities, but the gap does not stop growing and comes from public policies. And he sets his own country as an example.
Refining margins will increase in 2020: Overweight Repsol (Target Price 18 euros / share)
Morgan Stanley | Global refinery margins have fallen sharply this year and we think we are going to see a rebound in 2020 for a host of reasons: the price of HSFO has fallen to a level where it already competes in power generation, which limits its fall from these levels.
Negative rates, negative view
Nicola Mai and Peder Beck-Friis (Pimco) | We believe that negative policy rates could do more harm than good to economies and markets, due to their impact on banks, insurance companies and pension funds, and also a possible adverse effect on consumption. Below, we discuss potential implications for investors.