The ECB has left its policy stance unchanged after today’s GC meeting. The tone of the press conference was a touch less dovish than expected and President Lagarde has not signaled any large swing in policy in the near term. The overall message was clear: the ECB is monitoring current developments (including the EUR) and assessing the efficiency of the current policy measures before acting with more accommodation
Abe’s resignation is not good news as it comes at a critical economic, political and social time. The so-called Abenomics failed to address old structural problems and inflation has continued to be a headache, while wages have not risen as strongly as expected. Along with Japan, there are other economies such as Argentina, where past mistakes have been repeated. Current week the country successfully closed the restructuring of its debt in dollars with private creditors, but still have to recover its financial equilibrium.
Interest across the globe on using negative rates as a policy tool has increased with global interest rates moving towards zero in the hopes of pulling economies quickly out of the COVID-19 recession. In a report by Citi GPS, analysts Matt King and Catherine L. Mann look at the positives of negative rates in terms of whether they boost credit growth, stimulate spending, or contribute to currency weakness. More importantly, they explore the side effects negative rates would have on corporates, households, banks, pensions, and markets.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | One of the most exciting stories of the world economy in 2002 is the oil price collapse. David Fyfe, chief economist of one of the world’s largest suppliers of raw materials’ prices, Argus, is aware that the oil market is not going to be the same after this collapse in demand. It will take years for prices to recover – if they do – and US production will be lower.
John Whittaker (The Conversation) | MMT proponents argue that governments can spend as necessary on all desirable causes – reducing unemployment, green energy, better healthcare and education – without worrying about paying for it with higher taxes or increased borrowing. Instead, they can pay using new money from their central bank. The only limit, according to this view, is if inflation starts to rise, in which case the solution is to increase taxes.
Intermoney | Within the ECB, they are not forgetting the clash it has had with the German Constitutional Court, after the latter ruled the bank’s bond purchase programme is “partially unconstitutional.” In fact, it is one of the problems they have to solve before the institutional break in August. Meanwhile, the central bank’s internal forum is still debating the question of whether the buying programme had an impact on economic and financial policy. The members of the Governing Council have been discussing the pros and cons of its monetary policy.
CaixaBank Research | The impact of the coronavirus on inflation is uncertain, as there are simultaneous supply and demand movements that can tilt the balance towards more inflation, disinflation, or even deflation. In the short term, despite measurement problems and the closure of markets, disinflation has dominated. In the medium term, several factors suggest that disinflationary pressures will continue to dominate. In the long term, transformations such as deglobalisation or shifts in consumption patterns could lead to structural changes.
Miguel Navascués | The Fed is continuing to buy assets and issue money to chosen subjects (for the first time not just the banks). The purchases made so far are more than double those made in 2008. However, the speed of money circulation (i.e., GDP/M2), shows a decline to levels never seen before: each unit of money in circulation moves just $1.4 of GDP. Or, in other words, more and more money is needed to move the same amount of GDP.
Degussa | Most people these days think inflation is a rise in consumer goods prices of more than 2 per cent per year – a result of what mainstream economics has been teaching generations of students all around the world. However, equating inflation with changes in consumer goods prices is inadequate and highly deceptive for various reasons.
Asad Zangana (Schroeders) | Many economies are facing a deep recession as a result of Covid-19, but Italy went into this crisis in a more precarious situation than most. The country stands out as the most likely candidate to exit the eurozone for several reasons. First, with gross debt estimated at 135% of GDP in 2019, it faces a significant challenge in both servicing its debt, but also refinancing it.