The refugee crisis shows no respect for pacts. Not even the stability pact, which is difficult to enforce when many countries vote for change facing an economy without growth. It’s easier to wait for money from heaven.
The European Banking Authority (EBA) has finished defining the nature of the stress tests, as well as the scenarios the 51 largest European banks will be subject to in 2016. But given the situation of the Italian and German lenders, after the last stress test, there are more and more people who believe there is a certain amount of complicity going on to hide the real situation of many of the banks in both countries.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | As symbols go, the imaginary pig’s head in William Golding’s Lord of the Flies requires little explanation. Its meaning is summed up in one line of the unnerving classic. “Fancy thinking the beast was something you could hunt and kill!” says the fly-infested head. “You knew, didn’t you? I’m part of you?”
Germany has a very broad history in government coalitions. So is there anything in its formula that makes it exportable to other parts of the world, including Spain? Whatever happens in Germany in the coming months, there are a couple of points worth taking into account.
Julius Baer Research | Yields of German 2-year and 5-year government bonds are down to -0.55% and -0.36%, respectively, testament that the market is not expecting the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to hammer out a global deal against falling interest rates.
The conservative members of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) do not understand that she does not want to put a limit on the number of refugees. And now even her coalition partner in Berlin, the Social Democrats, criticise her for underestimating the scale of the challenge. So to what extent will Merkel be able to impose her ideas? Who can replace her? Is it a viable proposition to integrate all asylum seekers who arrive in Europe?
Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | On October 14, the German government lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent. Despite this, the economic minister, Sigmar Gabriel, expressed his expectation of higher economic growth next year.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Almost alone among economic commentators we do actually look at Nominal GDP data as it is released. Full Euro Area NGDP data for third quarter 2015 was released this week alongside the 2nd estimate of Real GDP. We have already posted here and here on the good news as three of the “big 4” Euro Area countries, making up 75% of the Euro Area economy, had seen accelerating NGDP. The not so good news is that the little countries saw less acceleration.
What future is there for Europe if each country understands the European destiny in its own way? The aim is to stabilise the euro. But each country has a different solution for achieving that. And at the centre of all the debates is Germany. Whatever it does, it upsets the apple cart.
Michael Clauss via Caixin | Both countries want to solve the world’s crises, continue to innovate and develop sustainable economies – all reasons for optimism in the relationship.