Stock market analysts have turned the annual central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole into a boiling pot of speculation regarding what message Fed Chair Janet Yellen will transmit. The markets are not expecting a rate hike in September, but are hoping for some guidance from Yellen’s speech today about how she sees the US economy, the key factor which will determine whether there will be a rate move before year-end.
Fan Ruohong and Chen Na via Caixin | Renewable energy accounted for nearly a quarter of China’s power generation last year, even as wind and solar farms with 39 billion kilowatt-hours of capacity sat idle due to poor planning in the rush to meet Beijing’s ambitious green energy targets, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said.
In the good old days, financial and economic observers used to worship Alan Greenspan’s deliveries as if they were Moses’ Tables of the Law. Many even earned their living interpreting his messages. This has no longer been the case since the first moment Janet Yellen took office. Most acknowledge that reading the Fed minutes is tantamount to a sheer waste of time. What we want to know, and the sooner the better, is the degree of commitment the Fed will demonstrate in hiking rates and reducing the liquidity glut.
Shi Rui, Wang Luyi, Li Rongde via Caixin | The number of provinces with pension spending deficits doubled over the last year, according to a new report, underscoring the urgency for creating a national system that would let wealthier coastal regions subsidize poorer interior ones. Pension funds in six provinces paid out more money than they collected in 2015, up from three regions a year earlier, according to the 2015 China Social Security Development Report compiled by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
John Bruton | The best way to avoid stagnation induced by uncertainty would be for governments in developed countries to produce comprehensive, demographically-based scenarios for the economy over the next 30 years.
Governments do not want to acknowledge that a Central Bank does not have the ability to bolster the economy. Monetarism has not worked. The massive purchase of corporate bonds by the Central Banks has not worked. They have been left alone to face the problem and they have failed. The solution is to activate demand and Central Banks cannot do this.
BBVA Research | The demise of the branch has been prophesised for decades, yet it still remains a crucial access point for bank services, valued by most bank customers. However, the question about the future of retail branches looms large as mobile and online banking are becoming ubiquitous, most routine retail banking services that do not involve cash are becoming available remotely, and as customers are ever more comfortable with the new technologies for accessing them.
Natixis AM | Currently, the most important graph is the price of oil. Last week, the oil price was was above its level of August 2015. The oil price has started to fall at mid-2014. Since this moment, the oil price was always below the level it had one year before. This has changed last week. It’s the first time since 2014 that we see such a crossing.
On the eve of the Jackson Hole Fed gathering, the San Francisco Reserve Bank Chairman, John Williams, has launched an enlightening debate on the challenge raised by protracted natural interest rates. The so-called r-star would rank now close to zero in the US and below that threshold in the Eurozone.
Hu Shuli via Caixin | Chinese sports fans following the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro have noticed something different about the latest generation of Olympians representing their country. Today’s young athletes are a lot less inclined to cry if they fail to win a gold medal. It’s a whole new ball game: China has replaced a form of gold-medal worship with true appreciation for athletic endeavors and achievement.